Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract زمینه و هدف: این پژوهش با استفاده از برونداد مدل‌های CMIP6 و دو سناریو SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5، روند تغییرات و ناهنجاری دمای میانگین بیشینه و کمینه ایران را طی سه دوره زمانی آینده نزدیک، میانه و دور بررسی و پیش‌نگری می‌نماید.
روش شناسی: ابتدا 15 مدل از مجموعه مدل‌های CMIP6 انتخاب و اعتبار سنجی و صحت سنجی مدل‌ها و مقایسه آنها با داده‌های مشاهداتی 71 ایستگاه هواشناسی، با استفاده از شاخص KGE و سایر روش‌های ارزیابی خطا انجام شد. جهت مقیاس‌کاهی و تصحیح خطا از نرم افزار Cmhyd استفاده شد.
نتایج و یافته‌ها: بررسی روند تغییرات دمای میانگین بیشینه و کمینه با استفاده از خروجی مدل NorESM2-MM و آزمون تعیین روند من- کندال، حاکی از روند صعودی تحت هر دو سناریو و در 100 درصد ایستگاه‌ها با سطح اطمینان 99 درصد می‌باشد. انتظار می‌رود دمای میانگین بیشینه تحت دو سناریو SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 با آهنگ 24/0 و 65/0 و دمای میانگین کمینه نیز با آهنگ 21/0 و 60/0 درجه سلسیوس در هر دهه افزایش داشته باشند. همچنین بیشترین افزایش دمای بیشینه و کمینه، تحت سناریو SSP5-8.5 و در آینده دور به ترتیب با 2/3 و 6/4 درجه سلسیوس رخ خواهد داد. با توجه به نتایج، بیشترین ناهنجاری مثبت، در دماهای کمینه مشاهده شد، به طوری که در تمام سال‌های دوره پیشنگری تا سال 2100، دمای میانگین کمینه نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد داشت، در حالی که طی بعضی از سال‌های آینده نزدیک، امکان کاهش دمای میانگین بیشینه نسبت به دوره پایه وجود دارد.
نتیجه گیری: نتیجه‌گیری می‌شود تا انتهای قرن حاضر دمای میانگین بیشینه و کمینه در بیشتر مناطق کشور روند صعودی خواهد داشت، که البته ناهنجاری‌های مثبت در دماهای کمینه بسیار مشهودتر از دمای بیشینه می‌باشد. همچنین تحت سناریوهای با انتشار بالای گازهای گلخانه‌ای، ناهنجاری‌های دمایی مثبت شدیدتر و آهنگ تغییرات بیشتر خواهد بود.

Abstract Background and Objective:Climate is a pervasive and important component of the ecosystem, and its changes, although insignificant, can affect other components to varying degrees. Among the most important climatic disasters that bring devastating environmental consequences every year are heat waves. The aim of the present study is to investigate the synoptic heat wave above 50 degrees Celsius on July 13, 2024, in Khuzestan Province.
Methodology:This research was conducted with an environmental perspective on atmospheric circulation, in which, first, the recorded temperatures of Khuzestan province stations and their changes were received from the Meteorological Department of Khuzestan province, and then by receiving data from the upper levels of the atmosphere and analyzing them, the causes of extreme heat were identified. In this research, to analyze the synoptic patterns leading to the heat wave in Khuzestan province, the atmospheric data at the level of 500 hectopascals were extracted from the NOAA website, which included maps of geopotential height, sea level pressure, omega, relative humidity and precipitable water, temperature, wind speed and thickness for the days of July 13-15, 2024.
Results and Findings:The results showed that the penetration of thermal low pressure systems in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the establishment of the subtropical Azores high pressure in the southwest and the Siberian high pressure in northern Iran at a level of 500 hectopascals, were the most important influential patterns in creating the heat wave of July 13, 2024 in Khuzestan Province, which began 48 hours ago. The association of this low pressure system located in the region with its topographic pattern (Southern Zagros heights) and its counterclockwise currents from the south and southwest of the province caused the warm advection of the radiant temperature of the hot deserts of Lut, Saudi Arabia, and the Sea of Oman. On the other hand, by passing over the warm waters of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, it affected this region simultaneously with the onset of the hot season, which resulted in a sharp increase in temperature and provided the necessary synoptic conditions to create heat above 50 degrees Celsius in Khuzestan Province.

Abstract Background and Objective: Wheat, as one of the strategic agricultural products and staple grains in the global food basket, plays a key role in ensuring food security and livelihoods of human societies. According to the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), wheat is the third most important cereal crop in terms of production in the world after corn and rice, which plays a fundamental role in providing calories and protein needed by humans. Considering the strategic importance of wheat and the increasing need to increase its production, locating and optimally allocating suitable lands for cultivating this crop is considered one of the main priorities in the agricultural sector. The aim of this study is to compare the AHP and TOPSIS methods in order to zone lands suitable for rainfed wheat cultivation in the Balekhlo-Chai watershed of Ardabil.
Methodology: In this study, precipitation, temperature, altitude, slope and soil depth data of the Balekhlo-Chai watershed of Ardabil were used. Then, by processing the data in a GIS environment, a map of information layers was prepared for each of the criteria. The AHP method was used to determine the weight of the criteria and the TOPSIS model was used to prioritize the options. Then, by overlapping and combining the studied criteria, the final map of areas susceptible to rainfed wheat cultivation was determined.
Findings and Results: The results of data analysis using the AHP method showed that about 37 percent of the land in the Balekhlo-Chai watershed is very suitable for rainfed wheat cultivation, 22 percent suitable, 24 percent slightly suitable, and 17 percent unsuitable. Also, based on the TOPSIS method, about 37 percent of the area of the Balekhlo-Chai watershed is suitable, 32 percent slightly suitable, and 31 percent unsuitable for rainfed wheat cultivation. The results of the AHP method indicate that the slope criterion with a weight of 0.220, the height with a weight of 0.144, the annual precipitation with a weight of 0.122, and the precipitation during the ripening and grain-setting stages with a weight of 0.106 are the most important criteria in the stages of wheat cultivation in the Balekhlo-Chai watershed. Also, the results of the TOPSIS model prioritization showed that Nir station is the closest option to the positive ideal, followed by Sarein and Ardabil, respectively.

Abstract Background and Objective: Heat waves are among the most important climatic disasters that bring devastating environmental consequences every year. Heat waves are a very important climatic event that is likely to occur with greater frequency and intensity in the future. Therefore, in order to manage and reduce the effects of heat waves on a regional scale, it is necessary to analyze and predict changes related to heat waves. The aim of this paper is to identify, classify, and synoptically analyze heat waves and its long-term forecast in the Ardabil Plain.
Methodology: First, the 20-year long-term statistics of heat waves from 1995 to 2014 at the Ardabil synoptic station were prepared, and heat wave synoptic maps were extracted and analyzed using the Grads software. Using the LARS-WG model, possible heat waves were predicted in the next 38 years (2015-2050).The studies identified 25 heat waves during the 20-year period. To evaluate the model performance, observational and simulated data were compared in the base period (1995-2014).
Results and Findings: The results also showed that the usual time for the onset of heat waves is in early August. The results showed that the dominant patterns during the occurrence of heat waves include a zonal high pressure accompanied by a westerly wind wave ridge and a low pressure prevailing over the sea surface and the Pakistan and Saudi low pressure over the study area. The results also showed that the average annual maximum temperature of Ardabil during the statistical period from 2015 to 2050 will be about 13.68 degrees Celsius. According to the HadCM3 model, under the A1B scenario, the temperature is about 16.46, according to the IPCM4 model, under the B1 scenario, the temperature is about 16.54, and according to HADGEM, under the A2 scenario, the temperature is 16.55 degrees Celsius, with a difference of 0.01.The output of the aforementioned models showed that the temperature of the Ardabil plain will increase by an average of about 3 degrees Celsius by 2050.