Assessing Iran's Hydropolitical Tensions in Border Watersheds on National Security
Volume 6, Issue 4, Winter 2025, Pages 98-113
Mohammad Raoof Heidari Far, khadijeh Dolatiari
Abstract Background and Objective: Changes in the volume and quality of water resources in the Middle East cause political and military tensions. This research seeks to evaluate the role of water scarcity on Iran's geopolitical tensions with its neighbors.
Methodology: The study method in this research is applied, descriptive-analytical. The research data are the result of library and field studies with a survey of 21 experts familiar with hydrology and political science. The evaluation of the research questionnaires is done with the help of TOPSIS management methods and hierarchical analysis, as well as the scenario writing method in Expert Choice, Excel, and Scenario Wizard software
Results and findings: The research results indicate that based on the TOPSIS method, the Hirmand basin has the smallest distance to the ideal solution with a value of 0.91, indicating that this basin is the most tense basin at present and will probably be in similar conditions in the future. Also, the future of Turkish dam projects has a 67% probability of being credible, leading to a war between the countries involved in the Gap project, which will have security consequences for Turkish Kurdistan, Iraq, Syria and Iran, and a future full of violence is imagined for it. In the aspect of internal management, in addition to climate change, internal factors such as economic issues (capital and technology), incorrect management and policies have contributed to the effects of water resource shortages in the country.