Quantitative Analysis of Land-Use Change and Urban Development Patterns Using Spatial Matrices (Case Study: District 4, Tabriz Metropolitan Area)
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 03 February 2026
Ferydon Babaei Aghdam, Alireza Omidpour, Para Karimzadeh
Abstract Abstract: In recent decades, urban areas have experienced significant spatial and physical transformations, largely driven by rapid horizontal expansion and land-use changes. Tabriz, as one of Iran’s metropolitan cities, has particularly witnessed unbalanced and scattered urban growth in District 4, resulting in various environmental and social consequences. This study aims to evaluate the spatial–physical expansion trends of District 4 of Tabriz. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature. Considering the unbalanced urban growth and increasing pressure on natural resources and agricultural lands, the study examines urban development patterns and proposes sustainable approaches for guiding and managing future physical growth.
Methodology: The methodological framework is grounded in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial matrix analysis. Core datasets—including land-use maps, road networks, and key indicators affecting urban development—were collected and processed in ArcGIS. The analytical indicators consisted of building density, horizontal expansion, land-use change, accessibility to urban services, slope, distance from major roads, and hazard zoning. These indicators were rasterized, normalized, and integrated using overlay and hierarchical analytical methods to generate development suitability maps, enabling a multidimensional evaluation of the district’s spatial potential and constraints.
Findings and Conclusion: Results indicate that District 4 has undergone dispersed and unbalanced expansion over the past two decades, with an annual growth rate of roughly 2.5 percent. The prevailing pattern is low-density horizontal sprawl, placing pressure on natural resources and undermining spatial cohesion. Building density is concentrated in central areas and along transportation corridors, whereas peripheral and newly developed zones display low density and limited access to services. Slope and hazard analyses show that while some areas possess high development suitability, others are at environmental risk. Overall, findings highlight the significant role of GIS and spatial indicators in monitoring and guiding urban growth. Redirecting development toward higher density, enhancing spatial equity in service accessibility, considering natural land capacity, and controlling horizontal expansion are recommended as key strategies for promoting sustainable development in the district.
Assessing the Impacts of Tourism on Economic Growth and Urban Development: A Case Study of the Northwestern Provinces of Iran
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 01 May 2026
saman abizdeh
Abstract Background and Objective: In today's economy, tourism is recognized as one of the key indicators of development and an effective tool for achieving sustainable development. This industry plays a significant role in the economic growth of countries by increasing national income, creating employment, attracting domestic and foreign investment, fostering regional development, and generating foreign exchange earnings. Nevertheless, despite the emphasis on expanding tourism in all development plans and on moving away from a single-product economy reliant on oil exports, Iran has not achieved considerable, tangible, or noticeable success in this area. Therefore, the present study examines the effects of tourism on urban development and economic growth in three provinces—Ardabil, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan—over the period 2011–2023 (1390–1402 in the Persian calendar). The aim is to determine, considering the tourism potentials of these regions, whether tourism has been able to influence their regional development and growth.
Methodology: The present study is applied in terms of objective, and a library method was used to collect statistics and data. Accordingly, the required data were extracted using the statistical yearbooks of the studied provinces for the period 2011–2023, and a regression model was estimated using the panel data regression method.
Results and Findings: The estimation results of the model indicate that the tourism variable has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the studied provinces. Specifically, a one percent increase in the number of incoming tourists to a province leads to a 0.11 percent increase in its economic growth. In other words, despite the existing tourism potentials in these three provinces, particularly their beautiful forest and mountain areas and historical buildings, although the impact of tourism on production growth in these three provinces has been positive, the magnitude of this effect is lower than expected. Furthermore, the coefficients for physical capital, human capital, and labor are estimated to be 0.26, 0.21, and 0.39, respectively. That is, holding other conditions constant, a one percent change in physical capital, human capital, and labor changes the level of output by 0.26%, 0.21%, and 0.39%, respectively.
Measuring the effects of bank credits on urban development
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 27 June 2026
امیرعلی farhang, Farzad Rahimzadeh, Armin sanati motaban
Abstract One of the factors influencing urban and regional development is access to financial resources and bank credit. Through mobilizing and allocating financial resources, the banking system provides the necessary conditions for investment, infrastructure development, increased production, and employment generation. In Iran's bank-based economy, bank credit plays a significant role in the development of different regions. However, disparities in the distribution of credit may contribute to regional inequalities. Therefore, examining the impact of bank credit on urban and regional development is essential for economic policymaking and the achievement of balanced development. To this end, data from Iran's provinces over the period 2006–2021 were utilized, and after testing for data stationarity, the proposed model was estimated using panel data techniques.
The findings indicate that per capita capital stock and per capita bank credit granted have had a positive and statistically significant effect on the growth of value added in the economic sectors of the provinces, thereby promoting urban development through increased production and employment. Furthermore, human capital indicators, including the number of university students per capita, the teacher-to-student ratio in secondary education, and the per capita number of physicians and hospital beds, have also exerted a positive and significant impact on urban development. In addition, government expenditure, through the expansion of infrastructure, education, and healthcare services, as well as urbanization through enhanced productivity, concentration of human capital, and improved access to public services, has contributed to per capita income growth and the improvement of urban development across the provinces
Strategic Planning to Achieve a Creative City (Case Study: Ardabil City)
Volume 7, Issue 2, Summer 2026, Pages 117-128
Navid Ghaffari Chanzanagh, Mohammad Hassan Yazdani, Delavar Masoumi
Abstract Background and Aim: Urban creativity is one of the main drivers for achieving sustainable development. This requires having creative industries, creative employees, creative knowledge, and cultural richness. The present study was conducted with the aim of strategic planning to achieve a creative city in Ardabil.
Methodology: The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The data collection method is library-survey. Based on the creative city indicators and the collected data, 34 strategies for achieving a creative city were divided into five main criteria (people, economic enterprises, urban spaces, connections and communications, and city vision and reputation), and to determine their importance (opinions of 50 experts), structural equation testing was used in SMART-PLS software.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the economic enterprises criterion (factor loading 0.937), the people criterion (factor loading 0.936), the urban spaces criterion (factor loading 0.918), the linkages and communications criterion (factor loading 0.896), and the city vision and reputation criterion (factor loading 0.875) are the best strategies for achieving a creative city. Also, among the economic enterprises criterion, specialized support for creative businesses (factor load 0.87), among the people criterion, developing creative capacity at all levels of general education (factor load 0.85), among the urban spaces criterion, creating stable and secure spaces for cultural and artistic activities (factor load 0.76), among the linkage and communications criterion, providing virtual infrastructures and facilitating electronic communications (factor load 0.82), and among the city's vision and reputation criterion, planning to enhance the city's regional and supra-regional position and facilitating the presence of tourists (factor load 0.83) are the most important strategies for achieving a creative city in Ardabil.
Analysis of Employment Changes and Their Role in the Urban Development Process of West Azerbaijan Province (With Emphasis on the Share and Location Change Approach)
Volume 6, Issue 2, Summer 2025, Pages 184-197
Mohammad Mohammadnejad, Mojtaba Azmoun
Abstract Introduction and Objectives: West Azerbaijan Province, due to its geographical and economic characteristics, has undergone significant changes in the labor market and employment. This study aims to investigate the trends in employment changes across three sectors: agriculture, industry, and services during the years 2011, 2016, and 2021. The primary objective of this research is to identify the pattern of employment changes and its impact on the urban development of West Azerbaijan Province.
Research Methodology: This is a descriptive-analytical study, and the data were collected from library resources and the statistical yearbooks of the country and province. For data analysis, the Shift-Share model was utilized to assess the impact of national and structural factors on employment, and the Location Quotient model was used to differentiate between primary and non-primary jobs.
Findings and Conclusions: The findings of this study reveal that between 2011 and 2021, employment in the agricultural and industrial sectors decreased, with the share of employment in agriculture falling from 37.2% to 30.4%, and in industry from 24.8% to 22.3%. In contrast, the public services sector experienced significant growth, with the share of employment in this sector increasing from 23.1% to 30.1%. These changes indicate a shift in labor from the agricultural and industrial sectors to the services sector. The main conclusion of the research shows that employment in agriculture and industry has declined and shifted towards services, highlighting the need for a balanced strengthening of these sectors for sustainable urban development.
Analysis of the effects of public participation and urban development case study : Baneh city
Volume 5, Issue 1, Spring 2024, Pages 132-154
Mahmood Hooshyar, Alaeddin Rotabi
Abstract Extended Abstract Introductio: Presence in social environments and participation of citizens in cities is one of the main factors of achieving social growth in cities and ultimately achieving sustainable urban development. Today, policy makers and city managers consider attracting the maximum participation of people as one of the strategies of good urban management. Despite all the efforts made in Iran, until now the process of participation as a public culture has not had a proper place in the thoughts and actions of citizens. Considering the importance and role of participation in urban development in this research with the aim of investigating the relationship between the two mentioned indicators, in order to explain and evaluate the two indicators of participation and urban development from the perspective of citizens in Baneh city and to investigate the relationship between participation and physical, socio-cultural development And it has been economical. Descriptive-analytical research method using field observation tool and citizens' opinion questionnaire has been collected and researched in spss software environment with various descriptive and inferential tests including Pearson's correlation test. Inaccurate results have shown that citizens' assessment of the two indicators of participation and urban development is not at an acceptable level. Also, the correlation results of the two mentioned indicators showed that there is a significant relationship at the 95% level between the two indicators of public participation and urban development in all sub-indices related to development in Baneh city. 2.Methods and Material: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of type. The statistical population of the research includes the residents of Baneh city with a population of about 120 thousand people, and by entering this number in the Cochran formula, 384 people were selected as the sample size and the questionnaire was distributed among them. In order to measure the validity of the questionnaire, from the interview and asking the opinions of supervisors, advisors and experts on the plans of the study area and similar to the subject under study and applying their possible amendments were used. Cronbach's alpha method was used to measure the reliability of the questionnaire. The value of Cronbach's alpha was 0.741 and it can be concluded that the research questionnaire has good reliability. To analyze the data, Pearson's correlation coefficient was used in SPSS software. Volume 5, Issue 1 - Serial Number 15, Spring 2024 Online ISSN: 2783-0764 Journal Hompage https://www.srds.ir/ DOR.20.1001.1.27830764.1403.5.1.8.0 Results and Discussion: The number of respondents is male (50.8) and female (48.2) and there are 0 (0) unanswered. Therefore, the number of male respondents is more than female respondents. The average of 33.47 indicates that the respondents are middle-aged. The youngest respondent was 18 and the oldest respondent was 80 years old. In order to investigate the state of public participation at the level of the citizens of Baneh city, in this part of the research, by examining previous research and the opinions of experts and Dear professors, 16 items were designed as suitable items to evaluate the people's participation in Baneh city in the form of a questionnaire and provided to the sample size of the research. be And it does not have an acceptable status. In order to investigate urban development and its different dimensions, three main dimensions of urban development including physical, socio-cultural and economic dimensions have been investigated. In order to examine each of the development indicators in more detail, items for the aforementioned indicators were observed according to the review of previous sources and the opinions of experts that the evaluation of the citizens of the level of development in the investigated indicators is not at an acceptable level. Be The average satisfaction and evaluation of the residents of Baneh city on various indicators of urban development is at a very low level. So that the average physical development index is 1.6, the average socio-cultural development index is 1.9, and the average economic development index is 1.4, which is lower than the average level of citizen satisfaction. The results of the Pearson correlation test show that there is a significant correlation between the two research indicators and it can be said that the relationship between public participation and urban development in different physical, socio-cultural and economic dimensions is significant at the 95% level. Conclusion: With the aim of investigating the state of public participation at the level of the citizens of Baneh city, after reviewing previous research and the opinions of respected experts and professors, 16 items were selected as suitable items to evaluate public participation in Baneh city in the form of a questionnaire designed and available in the volume The research sample was selected, and the results showed that the state of public participation is moderate to low in terms of citizens. And it does not have an acceptable status. Also, in order to investigate the various dimensions of urban development in Baneh, the main indicators of urban development including three physical, socio-cultural and economic indicators and 16 related sub-indices have been provided in the form of a questionnaire to the sample size of research at the level of the citizens of Baneh city. The results of citizens' assessment of the level of development in each of the development indicators are presented in the following tables. As can be seen in the results, the citizens' assessment of the level of development in the investigated indicators is not at an acceptable level. Pearson's correlation test has been used in order to investigate the relationship of the participation index and its effects in the urban development of Baneh. The results of the Pearson correlation test show that there is a significant correlation between the two research indicators and it can be said that the relationship between public participation and urban development in different physical, socio-cultural and economic dimensions is significant at the 95% level.
Analyzing and reviewing the City Development Strategic plan (CDS) of Kazerun with the approach of sustainable urban development
Volume 3, Issue 4, Winter 2023, Pages 1-20
Mohammad Akbari Riyabi, Farzaneh Soflae
Abstract Background and Aim: Sustainable development (SD) is an ideological solution to the current problems of developing cities moving toward a brilliant future where environmental resources are maintained for generations to come. Urbanism is expanding rapidly, exploitation of resources and waste production increases, and urban sprawl is turning green lands into gray-lands. The city of Kazerun will face serious challenges of development, in the future; in such a situation, the question is: what kind of plans and what strategies can be presented for the future development of the city? And in what dimensions and with what answers does the sustainable development approach come? Sustainable development seems to provide assurances of future generations by providing clever strategies and thought-provoking development.
Methods: The theoretical basis of this research is based on documentary-library studies for specifies the criteria. Research data related to the case study has been gathered through field observations, deep interviews, and referrals to developmental entities, and has been developed and analyzed in a Delphi technique by a SWOT table. The strategies extracted from the SWOT tables were evaluated with AHP logic and, using the Delphi reciprocating process. The score of each strategy was calculated in Expert Choice software.
Findings and Conclusion: Findings show that observance of social justice, promotion of social welfare, economic prosperity, sustainable transportation methods, and also intelligent energy management in various social, economic and environmental dimensions due to City Development Strategic plan will be the most effective ways to deal with the challenge facing the development of the city of Kazerun.
Structural Analysis of Urban Development of Ahvaz Metropolis with Futuristic Research Method
Volume 1, Issue 2, Winter 2021, Pages 1-18
Massoud Safaei Pour, Fereshteh Shanbehpoor
Abstract Today, the challenges of modern urban life and environmental and social problems have led to a futuristic approach to urban planning and the use of various tools to build a desirable future. The present study uses the technique of cross-impact analysis, which is one of the common methods in futures research, and using Mick Mac software, has analyzed the components of urban development in the metropolis of Ahvaz. Then, 37 components were extracted as indicators of urban development using the Delphi method. The results indicate that six categories (influential factors, risk factors, purpose, influential factors, and independent factors, regulators) can be identified in the scatter page. Finally, among the 37 key factors, after examining the impact of these factors on each other and the future situation of the metropolis of Ahvaz by direct and indirect methods, 13 effective and key drivers were identified, including; (Population, equitable distribution of urban services, development of tourism industry, organization of special tourism axes, organization of suburban areas, control of air pollution and promotion of environmental health, expansion of public open space and creation of leisure centers, providing the appropriate level of economic growth, improving quality of life in dilapidated urban fabric, organization, and improvement of worn-out fabric, expansion of small and high-yield workshops, empowerment of non-governmental organizations, development of recreation and tourism centers) which have the most role in the future state of urban development in Ahvaz, were selected as factors and drivers Affecting the urban development of Ahvaz. The results further show that the factors of "development of the tourism industry, organizing the suburbs" are at risk. Population factors, fair distribution of urban services, development of the tourism industry, will have the greatest impact on the urban development process of Ahvaz metropolis.
