Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract Background and Aim: The elements of local architecture of each region are more influenced by environmental and climatic factors than any other factor. These factors, as a determining factor, have led to the emergence of different architectural styles in different regions; to the extent that their effect is visible in the entire urban context and even in individual buildings and interior architectural elements of spaces. The current research studies the effect of the environment and geographical components on the design and construction of old houses in the historical context of the city of Ardabil.
Methods and Material:This research is analytical-descriptive and based on the authors' survey in the historical context of the city of Ardabil and on library studies and field surveys.
Research questions: The research questions are formulated as follows: 1) What effect has the climate had on the location and layout of traditional houses and the urban space of Ardabil? What climatic and geographical factors have influenced the layout, physical space, and architectural components of historical houses in the city of Ardabil?
Results and Discussion: The results of the study show that architects have considered factors such as the direction of the sun's rays, humidity, temperature, and wind directions in designing urban spaces and the layout of buildings and spaces. Also, the overall shape of the courtyards, interior and exterior spaces, openings, and materials used are in harmony with the ecosystem of the studied area.

Abstract Abstract Background and Aim Land use change modeling is an essential tool for environmental analysis, planning, and management. Among the basic objectives of this research is to investigate and understand the changes in land uses in Region 7 of Tabriz between 2000 and 2020 using remote sensing technology and satellite images. And also to predict these changes for the next 20 years. To predict the changes, the Markov chain cell model was used for prediction. Among other objectives, it can be mentioned to find out the use that has and will have the most changes and increases.
Methodology: Land use change modeling is an essential tool for environmental analysis, planning, and management. The main objective of this research is to investigate and evaluate land use changes in Tabriz city over a 20-year period (from 2000 to 2020). This goal is achieved by extracting land use maps for the years 2000 and 2020 through satellite images and obtaining the changes that have occurred in land use during this period, and finally predicting these changes using a Markov model.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that although the region has a large area of barren land, the residential area has grown significantly between 2000 and 2020 and will continue to grow in the future. This indicates a positive and increasing trend in urban and residential areas that should be taken into account. Between 2000 and 2020, we have witnessed a sharp decrease in green space, which can be a warning for managers and decision-makers. Urban green space is an important land use within the city and on the outskirts of the city, and its absence causes environmental problems and .... Also, residential land use will have the most changes at the regional level for the next 20 years, and it was proven that the maximum likelihood classification model has appropriate accuracy for classifying satellite data.
Conclusion: The overall results showed that although the region has a large area of barren land, the residential area has grown significantly between 2000 and 2020 and will continue to grow in the future, indicating a positive and increasing trend in urban and residential areas that should be taken into account. Between 2000 and 2020, we have witnessed a sharp decline in green space, which can be a warning for managers and decision-makers. Urban green space is an important use within the city and on the outskirts of the city, and its absence causes environmental problems and .... Industrial areas have also enjoyed significant growth in the past 20 years, and the growth of this use and its positive and increasing

Abstract Abstract

Background and Objective: Diabetes is a major chronic non-communicable disease with growing global and national prevalence, imposing substantial burdens on healthcare systems and negatively affecting patients' quality of life. As a modern analytical approach, spatial analysis offers valuable insights into the geographic distribution of diseases and supports the development of targeted interventions. This study aims to fill a gap in neighborhood-scale research by employing advanced spatial tools to explore the spatial distribution of diabetes, emphasizing equity in access to healthcare services.

Methodology: This applied, descriptive-analytical research examined the spatial and temporal distribution of diabetic cases in the Abotaleb neighborhood of Ardabil between 2018 and 2022. Data from 235 patients recorded at the local health center were analyzed using Google Maps and ArcGIS. The study utilized techniques such as Kernel Density Estimation, Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN), and proximity analysis.

Findings and Conclusion: The results indicated that the spatial distribution of diabetic patients followed a clustered pattern, with the highest concentration observed in the central and southern parts of the neighborhood, comprising approximately 30% of all patients. In the later years of the study, the clusters expanded toward the northern and western areas. The hot spot analysis showed that about 5% of patients were located in zones with 99% confidence, 10% in 95% confidence zones, and 15% in 90% confidence zones. Additionally, nearly 25% of patients were found in cold spots, indicating areas of lower patient density. Proximity and spatial neighborhood analyses revealed that some areas faced significant limitations in access to healthcare services. Age was also identified as a key variable contributing to the formation of spatial clusters. These findings underscore the need for revisiting the location of healthcare facilities and incorporating spatial analysis into health policy planning.

Abstract Background and Aim: Urban creativity is one of the main drivers for achieving sustainable development. This requires having creative industries, creative employees, creative knowledge, and cultural richness. The present study was conducted with the aim of strategic planning to achieve a creative city in Ardabil.
Methodology: The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The data collection method is library-survey. Based on the creative city indicators and the collected data, 34 strategies for achieving a creative city were divided into five main criteria (people, economic enterprises, urban spaces, connections and communications, and city vision and reputation), and to determine their importance (opinions of 50 experts), structural equation testing was used in SMART-PLS software.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the economic enterprises criterion (factor loading 0.937), the people criterion (factor loading 0.936), the urban spaces criterion (factor loading 0.918), the linkages and communications criterion (factor loading 0.896), and the city vision and reputation criterion (factor loading 0.875) are the best strategies for achieving a creative city. Also, among the economic enterprises criterion, specialized support for creative businesses (factor load 0.87), among the people criterion, developing creative capacity at all levels of general education (factor load 0.85), among the urban spaces criterion, creating stable and secure spaces for cultural and artistic activities (factor load 0.76), among the linkage and communications criterion, providing virtual infrastructures and facilitating electronic communications (factor load 0.82), and among the city's vision and reputation criterion, planning to enhance the city's regional and supra-regional position and facilitating the presence of tourists (factor load 0.83) are the most important strategies for achieving a creative city in Ardabil.

Abstract Background and Objective: Mount Sabalan, the second highest peak in Iran (with an elevation of 4,811 meters) and one of the most significant natural features of Ardabil Province, has played a decisive role in the formation of ancient civilizations in the region. Not only is it the tallest peak in northwestern Iran, but it is also considered one of the key centers for the emergence of early civilizations in this area. This study investigates the impact of Sabalan’s unique characteristics—including its water resources (hot springs and the Qarasoo River), fertile volcanic soils, and strategic location—on the spatial distribution patterns of archaeological settlements in Ardabil Province.
Methodology
Data analysis was carried out using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and comparative methods. The present study employed field surveys, spatial analyses, and archival research to examine 20 significant archaeological sites in Ardabil Province, including Yeri City (Meshginshahr), the archaeological areas of Sarein, and the historical Qahqaha Castle complex.
Findings and Conclusion:  The results show that more than 80% of the archaeological settlements in Ardabil Province are located within a 40-kilometer radius of Mount Sabalan. The fertile soils on the eastern slopes of the mountain played a crucial role in the development of ancient agriculture in the region.The research demonstrates that Sabalan’s natural features—especially access to water resources (the Qarasoo River and hot springs), fertile lands, and natural defensive positioning were key factors in the site selection of ancient settlements. Additionally, evidence suggests that the mountain’s ritual significance also influenced settlement patterns. This study highlights that Sabalan’s environmental conditions significantly contributed not only to the initial attraction of human communities but also tothe continuity and advancement of civilizations in the region.

Abstract Background and Objective: Rapid technological developments (such as artificial intelligence, automation, and the digital economy), labor market fluctuations, demographic changes, and increasing societal expectations in the field of welfare require a review of new missions and mechanisms. This study aimed to conduct foresight analysis of the cooperative sector in Ardabil Province by 2031 and propose development strategies.
Methodology: The research was descriptive-inferential and foresight-oriented, employing a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. The statistical population consisted of 58 experts, government and non-government officials, cooperative members, and researchers in the cooperative sector, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected via Likert-scale questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and documentary studies. Various methods were used for data analysis: PESTEL analysis to identify macro-environmental factors, MICMAC method to examine interrelationships among key variables, and Shell scenario planning to develop future scenarios. Additionally, correlation analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test, SWOT analysis, TF-IDF technique, and K-Means clustering were applied for quantitative and qualitative data analysis. 
Results and Findings: The results indicated that economic factors, such as inflation rates, and political factors, such as political stability, were the most influential. Technology was identified as a key driver, and scenarios of economic stagnation and water scarcity threats were deemed the most likely futures. The absence of significant differences among respondent groups facilitated unified policymaking. Ultimately, strategies such as leveraging strengths to capitalize on opportunities, focusing on key factors, preparing for likely scenarios, and promoting technological development were proposed. These findings can assist policymakers and cooperative managers in formulating sustainable development strategies.  While numerous studies on foresight and related topics have been conducted domestically and internationally, no research has been observed specifically on the foresight of the cooperative sector in Ardabil Province.

Abstract Background and Aim Land use change modeling is an essential tool for environmental analysis, planning, and management. The main objective of this research is to investigate and evaluate land use changes in Ardabil city over a 23-year period (from 1998 to 2021). This goal is achieved by extracting land use maps for 1998 and 2021 through satellite images and obtaining the changes that have occurred in land use during this period.
Methodology: Land use change modeling is an essential tool for environmental analysis, planning, and management. The main objective of this research is to investigate and evaluate land use changes in Ardabil city over a 23-year period (from 1998 to 2021). This goal was achieved by extracting land use maps for 1998 and 2021 through satellite images and obtaining the changes that have occurred in land use during this period, and finally predicting these changes for 2038 using a Markov model.
Findings and Conclusion: This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the changes that have occurred in the land uses of the city of Ardabil. In this research, satellite images from the years 1998 of the Landsat TM sensor and 2021 of the Landsat OLI sensor were used to investigate the changes in land use between the years 1998 and 2021. Then, land use changes were predicted for the year 2038 according to the current trend of changes. This research showed that by using appropriate tools such as remote sensing and geographic information systems and the models and algorithms available in these systems and tools, we can have appropriate spatial and temporal modeling for land uses and related issues. This research also showed that if images with higher accuracy and better quality are used and multiple models are also used, we can witness a more detailed examination of such issues, which can definitely help urban managers, officials, and decision-makersforbetterplanninganddecision-making.The overall results showed that built-up areas had a decreasing trend and this trend will continue for the year 2038. Also, road use had a growing trend from the past to 2021, which will maintain its growing trend for the year 2038. Green space also had a growing trend and will continue for the year 2038.

Abstract Background and Objective: In this study, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model was employed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to zone Ardabil County for the purpose of optimal military site selection. The primary objective was to identify and prioritize the most suitable areas for the establishment of military bases, taking into account environmental, climatic, and human-related criteria.
Methodology: This research is of an applied type and has been conducted using a descriptive-analytical method. For this purpose, fourteen important indicators including altitude, slope, slope direction, geology, vegetation, temperature, humidity, soil, distance from road, village, fault, land use, distance from waterway were classified into three main groups (minor, human and environmental). First, using the ANP model and Super Decisions software, the weight of each of them (using a questionnaire and 30 experts and news) was calculated based on pairwise comparisons and internal and external relationships among them. Then, using the GIS environment, spatial information layers related to each indicator were prepared and processed, and the final weight of each layer was integrated using the Raster Calculator tool. In the next step, the final zoning map of the garrison location was divided into five classes from completely suitable to completely unsuitable.
Results and Findings: Results indicated that approximately 30% of the study area falls within the "highly suitable" and "suitable" classes, mainly located in the central and western parts of the county. In contrast, about 30% of the area was found to be "moderately suitable," predominantly covering the northern and central regions. Additionally, 40% of the area was classified as "unsuitable" or "highly unsuitable," with most of these areas situated in the northern and southern parts of the county. The findings of this research can serve as an effective decision-making tool for defense institutions and urban management authorities in the optimal placement of military facilities.

Abstract Background and Objective: This research presents a comparative study of the historical bridges of Ardabil and Isfahan during the Safavid era, focusing on the influence of each region’s geographical features on the architecture and construction of these bridges. During the Safavid period, both Ardabil and Isfahan were recognized as significant political, cultural, and economic centers of Iran. Bridges of this era, beyond their function as crossings, played a crucial role in enhancing communication, facilitating economic exchanges, and even serving military purposes. The design and construction of these bridges were influenced by geographical, climatic, topographic conditions, and available local resources. In this context, examining how architects and engineers responded to natural challenges reveals the degree of architectural adaptation to the environmental context. The findings of the study indicate that geographical differences have led to variations in the design, construction, and functions of the bridges. Bridges in Ardabil, suited to mountainous conditions and variable rivers, exhibit more robust structures, while bridges in Isfahan, influenced by the urban setting and the Zayandeh Roud River, feature more open, decorative designs with multifunctional roles.
Methodology: The research methodology is descriptive-analytical, and data has been collected through library sources, historical texts, architectural documents, and geographical analyses. The core of this analysis consists of a comparison of design, structural types, materials used, and the functions of the bridges.
Findings and Conclusion:  The main objective of this study is to compare the architecture and structure of prominent historical bridges in Ardabil and Isfahan and to analyze the impact of geographical factors such as climate, topography, and water resources on the formation of their form, materials, and functions. This research aims to identify architectural patterns adapted to environmental conditions through the study of selected examples.

Abstract Background and Objective: Over the past few decades, discussions related to human development and its impact on economic growth have been of particular importance. The Human Development Index is a combination of three key components: life expectancy, per capita income, and literacy level, and is used to measure the level of development, analyze spatial justice, and regional inequality at the national and regional levels. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to investigate the economic factors affecting the improvement of the Human Development Index in Ardabil province. The type of research is descriptive-analytical.
Methodology: The method of this study is based on quantitative-spatial approaches. The research method used in this study is a combination of documentary-library methods. In the analytical section, by considering the indicators and considerations of human development in the form of 13 target indicators, the economic factors affecting the improvement of the Human Development Index in Ardabil province have been examined on a case-by-case basis. To collect the required information, the main reliance was on the documents of the National Statistics Center, and the Morris model, GIS software, and Spss were used to analyze the collected data.
Findings and Conclusion: The results show that in terms of human development index, the three counties of Ardabil, Parsabad, and Meshginshahr are in the highest ranks, and the three counties of Kowsar, Namin, and Sarein are in the lowest ranks. Also, the spatial distribution of the human development index among the counties of the province shows that the central and northern counties of the province have relatively better conditions than the southern counties. Regarding the factors affecting the human development index, the results of the article showed that the indicators of rural percentage, household size, unemployment rate, dependency burden, actual dependency burden, theoretical dependency burden, and percentage of industrial sector employees, with correlation coefficients of 0.726, 0.768, 0.245, 0.512, 0.512, and 0.598, respectively, had a statistically significant negative relationship with the human development index, and the indicators of urbanization percentage, employment rate, economic participation rate, women's economic participation rate, percentage of agricultural sector employees, and percentage of service sector employees, with correlation coefficients of 0.726, 0.245, 0.395, 0.101, and 0.435, respectively, had a statistically significant positive relationship with the human development index.

Abstract Background & Aim: Several factors contribute to the development of tourism in a region, among which climate is one of the most significant. Climate acts as a key driver or deterrent for tourism in any given area. This study aims to compare the results of two models, TCI (Tourism Climate Index) and UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index), and to provide a climate zoning analysis for comfort and discomfort in various locations across the provinces of Ardabil, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan on a monthly and seasonal scale.
Methods and Material: In this research, based on the thermal thresholds of the TCI and UTCI indices, a bioclimatic atlas for the provinces of Ardabil, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan was developed on a monthly and seasonal basis, and the results were compared. The UTCI index was calculated using RayMan and Bioklima software. The data were interpolated using the Kriging method in ArcGIS, and the corresponding maps were created.
Results & Conclusion:
According to the results of the TCI index, the months of May, June, July, August, and September generally show favorable conditions across all stations, except for Parsabad in September, Mianeh and Khoy in August and July, Kaleybar in May, and Jolfa in June, which exhibit less favorable conditions. The seasonal analysis indicates that most stations in spring and summer are suitable, except for Parsabad in summer, Kaleybar in spring, and Jolfa and Khoy in summer, where conditions are less favorable. The results of the UTCI index reveal that, during May, June, July, August, and September, all stations exhibit favorable conditions except Parsabad and Sahand in May, which display less favorable conditions. In the seasonal analysis, all stations show suitable conditions in spring and summer, except for Sahand in spring. Based on the results, due to the mountainous nature of the studied provinces and the presence of snow and winter conditions conducive to winter tourism, planning can be undertaken to promote winter tourism, considering the months with more favorable numerical index values.

Abstract  
Background and Aim: According to studies conducted in recent decades, changing the pattern of traditional to modern urban planning has been associated with challenges. In a study conducted in the city of Ardabil, the most important current challenges are irregular growth and development of the city, unbalanced and inharmonic, disruption and disorder in urban space, the disproportion of per capita, barren lands Abandoned in and around the city, the incompatibility of urban design with geographical conditions, the imposition of heavy urban transportation and traffic costs, as well as insufficient attention to infrastructure issues. The main purpose of this study is to analyze and investigate the contemporary urban planning pattern in Ardabil city and revive and recreate the traditional urban planning pattern in order to preserve the authentic Iranian texture in modern urban planning and also demonstrate of the consequences of neglecting the rich assets of Iranian urban development.
Methods: The nature of this research is descriptive-analytical with an applied approach, which has been carried out using library and field methods. The statistical population of the research is Ardabil city, the urban and population growth and development during the years 1976 to 2021 have been investigated. To monitor and investigate the horizontal growth of the city, Landsat satellite images were used and statistical analyses have been performed by a quartile distribution method.
Findings and Conclusions: According to the results obtained from this study, it is clear that the coherent and regular structure of the city has been defunct, and we are witnessing the horizontal growth of the city and the mismatch between urban area and population, and the uneven distribution of the population in the city. Also, based on investigations, the pattern of urban planning with a regular neighborhood structure with the natural and cultural environment is the most effective pattern for solving urban problems, and this model tends to local urban development. Revival of traditional patterns in modern urban planning can be fruitful and play a complementary role.