Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract Introduction and Objective: Inflation, as one of the most significant economic variables, has profound effects on the economic development process of countries. This study examines the mutual impacts of inflation and aspects of economic development in Iran and Iraq, aiming to analyze the relationships between the inflation rate and various economic variables such as production, agriculture, industry, dependency, education, and health.
Method: This study analyzes the impact of inflation on different dimensions of economic development using long-term data from 1990 to 2024 for both countries. The data were collected from reliable sources such as the World Bank and were evaluated using tests like the Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen cointegration test, and Granger causality test to assess the relationships between the variables. Regression models were also employed to examine the effects of inflation on each dimension of economic development.
Findings: The results indicate that all economic indicators in both countries are stationary, and there are significant relationships between the inflation rate and economic variables. In Iran, an increase in the inflation rate is associated with a slight increase in GDP, but it has considerable negative effects on the agriculture, health, and education sectors. In Iraq, inflation is considered a driver of economic growth, although its negative effects on health and education are also evident.
Conclusion: This research emphasizes that controlling inflation can contribute to improving economic conditions and achieving sustainable development in Iran and Iraq. Furthermore, the findings of this study can serve as a valuable reference for policymakers and economic analysts in formulating effective strategies for inflation management and supporting economic growth. Given the profound impact of inflation fluctuations on human and economic development, further research is necessary to gain a better understanding of these complex relationships.

Abstract Due to its strategic location, rich resources and ethnic diversity, Salah al-Din Province in northern Iraq has been a hotbed of conflict over the past decades, with the current land system having an impact in this context. Our study therefore aims to investigate and assess the impact of civil war on the land system in the province of Salah al-Din, by using the RS and GIS techniques. In this study, the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of the region was extracted for pre-war, war and post-war years by means of the support vector machine (SVM) technique, and using three years of Landsat 8 satellite images: 2013, 2015 and 2017. Furthermore, land change modeler (LCM) was used to analyze the changes over time and the patterns of the LULCC. According to the research findings, we observed a decrease in the extent of built-up, forest, and water bodies, along with an increase in barren land, vegetation and orchards, and agricultural land, during the war. On the other hand, ending the war has led to a reduction in the extent of barren lands, forest, and water bodies in the region, while increasing the area of built-up lands, vegetation, and agricultural lands. In this regard, our results showed that insurgents have utilized agricultural lands as one of their tools in the war against government, while the destruction of buildings has been observed following the escalation of the war. Our results indicate the infrastructural and demographic vulnerability to war, and the post-war landscape necessitates recovery and reconstruction policies resulting from the conflict that must be taken into account.

Abstract Background and Objective: Religious tourism has emerged as a significant driver of regional competitiveness and sustainable urban development in countries endowed with rich religious heritage. Iraq, as one of the most prominent pilgrimage destinations in the Islamic world, possesses substantial religious and cultural assets. However, despite these advantages, the country continues to face critical challenges, including inadequate infrastructure, spatial inequalities, administrative corruption, and managerial inefficiencies, which hinder the transformation of religious tourism potentials into a sustainable competitive advantage. Therefore, this study aims to identify the key driving forces and formulate effective strategies for enhancing Iraq’s regional competitiveness with a particular emphasis on religious tourism through a futures-oriented approach.
Methodology: This study is applied in terms of purpose and adopts a descriptive–analytical approach grounded in futures studies. The study population consisted of university academics, futures studies and tourism experts, executive managers, specialists from the Iraqi Ministry of Tourism, and stakeholders involved in religious tourism. Using purposive and snowball sampling techniques, a panel of 20 experts with at least ten years of professional experience and a master's degree or higher was selected. Data were collected through a cross-impact matrix questionnaire and analyzed using MICMAC structural analysis software..
Results and Findings: The study concludes that the future competitiveness of Iraq’s religious tourism destinations depends on reinforcing institutional capacity, improving governance quality, fostering innovation, and promoting stakeholder collaboration. Accordingly, several strategic initiatives are proposed, including the establishment of a pilgrimage spatial planning office, the creation of a supply-chain financing fund for local businesses, and the development of specialized university–industry intermediary institutions to facilitate knowledge transfer and innovation in the tourism sector.

Abstract Background and Aim: By creating jobs, attracting investment, and promoting sustainable practices, solar energy not only addresses environmental challenges but also fosters strong economic development. Studying the effects of solar energy on employment and economic growth is not only essential for a better understanding of the economic and social impacts of this energy source, but can also contribute to sustainable development and the creation of sustainable job opportunities in the future. Given the environmental challenges and the need for clean energy sources, these studies become even more important. Given the importance of solar energy and its role and place in growth and employment in Iraq and Iraq’s high potential in this field, the aim of this study is to investigate the effects of using solar energy on employment and economic growth in Iraq.
Methods and Material: In this research, a time series approach based on the autodistribution model with wide lags (ARDL) was used to examine the effects of solar energy use on employment and economic growth in Iraq during the period 1995-2022.
Results and Discussion: The findings of this study showed that solar energy had a positive effect on economic growth at a 95% confidence level. The effects of solar energy on employment were also positive and statistically significant at a 90% confidence level. According to the findings, the error correction term coefficient in this model was -0.489 and was statistically significant, indicating that if a shock is introduced to the economic growth rate in Iraq, 0.489 percent of the imbalance in the economic growth rate will be adjusted during each period and will approach its long-term trend. Also, the error correction coefficient in this model is -0.365 and is statistically significant, indicating that if a shock occurs to the employment rate in Iraq, 0.365 percent of the imbalance in the employment rate will be adjusted during each period and will approach its long-term trend. According to the results obtained, Iraq can invest in solar energy to improve economic growth and employment while preserving the environment.

Abstract Background and Objective: In recent years, with the increasing discussions about globalization and the diversity of perspectives on it, examining the impact of globalization on macroeconomic variables, including productivity, has become an attractive topic in the academic literature. Studying and examining the effects of globalization on labor productivity is of great importance for several reasons, as it provides insights into how global economic integration affects labor efficiency, economic growth, and overall development. Studying the effects of globalization on labor productivity growth is essential for understanding economic dynamics, informing policies, increasing competitiveness, and preparing the workforce for future challenges. This knowledge enables countries and businesses to reap the benefits of globalization while addressing its challenges, ultimately contributing to sustainable economic growth and improving living standards. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of globalization on labor productivity in Iraq.
Methodology: In order to investigate the nonlinear effects of globalization on labor productivity in Iraq during the period 1995-2022, the nonlinear extensive lags (NARDL) model was used in this study. Also, the symmetry or asymmetry of the effects of globalization on labor productivity in Iraq was examined.
Findings and Conclusion: The findings of this study showed that the positive impulses of globalization had positive and significant effects on labor productivity. However, the effects of negative impulses of globalization on labor productivity were not significant. Considering these effects, it can be concluded that the more Iraq is exposed to economic globalization, the more it will benefit from its benefits. Given the positive and significant impact of the human development index on labor productivity, it can be suggested that Iraqi politicians make the right and long-term decisions to strengthen this index by improving educational conditions at different levels of education, improving health and treatment conditions, and life expectancy, so that in addition to benefiting from the indirect effects of this index, the level of labor productivity as one of the main keys to sustainable development is strengthened and made more sustainable. Based on the results, it is necessary to emphasize that human development and its improvement cannot lead to improved productivity growth without interruption, and its effects will gradually emerge over time. Also, based on the negative and significant effects of the inflation rate on labor productivity, the Central Bank of Iraq should make more efforts and efforts to control the volume of liquidity as the main cause of inflation in the economies of countries. Finally, considering the positive and significant impact of foreign direct investment on labor productivity, the Iraqi government can take a major step towards improving labor productivity by reducing domestic risks and increasing its political and economic security by increasing foreign investment, in addition to taking advantage of its other positive effects.

Abstract Background and Objective: Human capital in the economic structure is considered a vital resource for production and value creation in the economic system. Human capital plays an important role in economic growth and development through various mechanisms. Human capital is formed in the form of knowledge, skills, expertise, and capabilities in individuals to increase income, quality of services, and production volume, and society and organizations can use it to advance their goals. Understanding human capital can help identify skill gaps and educational needs necessary for rebuilding and revitalizing the economy. Therefore, studying the impact of human capital on the economic development of Iraq after years of internal conflict is vital. The aim of this research is to study the impact of human capital on the economic development of Iraq during the period 1990-2023.
Methodology: The present study analyzes and examines the short-term and long-term effects of the impact of human capital on the economic development of Iraq during the period 1990-2023 in the form of econometric models and methods. For this purpose, the asymmetric distribution lag autoregressive model (NARDL) is used. This model is an extended form of the distribution lag autoregressive model ARDL.
Findings and Conclusion: Human capital has had a negative and significant short-term effect on GDP. In such a way that a one percent increase in human capital has caused a 0.593percent decrease in GDP. The variables of government spending and financial development have also had a positive and significant short-term effect on GDP. Labor and unemployment have had a negative and significant negative effect on GDP. In the long-term period, human capital has had a positive and significant long-term effect on GDP. In such a way that a one percent increase in human capital has caused a0.176 percent increase in GDP. Also, the variables of government spending and financial development have had a positive and significant long-term effect on GDP. Labor and unemployment have had a negative and significant negative effect on GDP. Investing in education, strengthening technical and vocational education to match labor market needs and the skills of educated individuals, and improving the capacity and quality of teachers through continuous training and provision of up-to-date resources will pave the way for increased economic development in Iraq.

Abstract Background and Objective: Natural resource rents can act as a dual factor; on the one hand, they provide financing for green projects, and on the other hand, they may lead to dependence on polluting industries and reduce incentives to invest in sustainable technologies. Geopolitical risk in resource-rich countries, especially in unstable regions, can lead to uncertainty in investments and a decrease in the willingness to develop green economic projects, which contributes to the weakening of sustainable growth. Uncertainty in economic policies, especially in the field of environmental regulations and taxation, can lead to reduced investor confidence and delays in the implementation of green initiatives, thus affecting sustainable economic growth.
Methodology: This study examines the effects of natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and economic uncertainties, and other control variables such as financial development, foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and fixed capital formation on green economic growth in Iraq using an auto-explanatory model with wide lags (ARDL) and seasonal data over the period 1995-2022.
Results and Findings: The results of the model estimation show that natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and economic policy uncertainty have a negative and significant effect on green economic growth in this have coutry. Also, financial development, foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and fixed capital formation have a positive and significant effect on green economic growth in Iraq country.

Abstract Background and Objective: Given the increasing importance of environmental issues and the challenges facing countries in achieving sustainable development, a better understanding of the relationship between democratic governance, the use of renewable energy, and trade policies is an inevitable necessity. On the other hand, identifying how these factors affect environmental indicators can help policymakers design optimal strategies to reduce environmental degradation and enhance sustainability. Foreign trade can play a dual role in environmental improvement or degradation. On the one hand, international trade can improve environmental quality through the transfer of clean technologies and environmental innovations; but on the other hand, in the absence of appropriate regulations, it may lead to increased pressure on natural resources and further pollution. Therefore, a simultaneous and integrated examination of these three factors can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relationships between economic, environmental, and governance policies. Given the importance of the subject, this study attempts to analyze the relationship between these factors and their effects on Iraq's environmental indicators.
Research Method: In this study, Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) was used to examine the impact of democracy, green energy, and foreign trade on environmental progress in Iraq from 2006 to 2022. These methods provide the ability to examine the long-term and short-term effects of variables and allow for the analysis of the complex relationships between democracy, green energy, foreign trade, and environmental progress.
Findings and Conclusions: The results show that increased carbon emissions are associated with democracy in Iraq, especially in a situation where economic and political pressures to accelerate economic growth increase energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Also, renewable energies (green energies), although they may have an incremental effect on carbon emissions in the short term, can help reduce carbon emissions and improve environmental quality in the long term. On the other hand, foreign trade has had negative effects on the environment due to Iraq's dependence on fossil energy resources, so Iraq needs green and sustainable trade policies. Also, in this study, the error correction coefficient is -0.3807. This coefficient shows that about 38.07 percent of the short-term imbalance is adjusted in each period and the system moves towards long-term equilibrium

Abstract Background and Objective: Investigating the factors affecting the unemployment rate as one of the most important macroeconomic indicators has been one of the topics studied by many researchers, scholars, and policymakers. The existence of a stable and balanced relationship between inflation and unemployment is very important and fundamental for maintaining international competitiveness in the economy. Uncontrolled inflation can greatly reduce the country's competitiveness by increasing production costs, reducing export competitiveness, and attracting less foreign investment. . Given the importance of the issue, the main objective of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of inflation on the unemployment rate in Iraq.
Methodology: In this study, the quantile regression method was used to investigate the asymmetric effects of inflation on the unemployment rate in Iraq during the period 1995 to 2023.
Findings and Conclusion: The results show that the inflation rate had a positive and significant effect on the unemployment rate, and these effects were strengthened in the high quantiles of the unemployment rate. Also, according to the results, the effects of inflation on the unemployment rate in Iraq were symmetric. According to these results, it can be concluded that the Phillips curve, which indicates an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, is not confirmed in Iraq. Therefore, to improve the unemployment rate, supply-side policies should be used and demand-side policies should be avoided.

Abstract Background and Aim: Energy and technology, as two main factors of production, play a prominent role in improving and sustaining the economic growth of countries. Today, a larger part of economic growth is attributed to the efficient use of energy and technology than in the past. Awareness of the impact of technology and energy on economic growth can lead policymakers to pursue more optimal strategies to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth and development, and in the long term, economic prosperity will affect the well-being of society. Given the importance of the research and the necessity of the present study, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of energy and technology consumption on the economic growth of Iraq.
Methodology: In the present study, the auto-explanatory model with extended lags (ARDL) was used to examine the impact of energy and technology consumption on the economic growth of Iraq during the period 2000 to 2022.
Findings and Conclusion: The results of this study show that the coefficient of the impact of energy consumption on economic growth in Iraq was 0.073 and the estimated T-statistic was 2.16. Given that the absolute value of the t-statistic was greater than the critical value at the 95% confidence level (1.96), it can be stated that energy consumption had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Another result showed that the coefficient of influence of the technology index on economic growth in Iraq was 0.129 and the estimated T-statistic was 3.34. Given that the absolute value of the t-statistic was greater than the critical value at the 95% confidence level (1.96), it can be stated that the technology index had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Also, the error correction coefficient was -0.576, which was statistically significant, indicating that if a shock were to occur to the economic growth rate in Iraq, 0.576 percent of the imbalance in the economic growth rate would be adjusted during each period and would approach its long-term trend.