Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract Background and Objective: Landslides are among the most common natural hazards, causing extensive economic, environmental, and human losses. This study aims to assess and map landslide susceptibility in the Siah Rud watershed located in Gilan Province, using a hybrid approach that integrates the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model with Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
Methodology: This applied, descriptive-analytical research utilizes the ANP model within the GIS environment to delineate landslide hazard zones in the Siah Rud watershed. Ten influential factors were selected for the analysis: land use, elevation, slope, slope aspect, vegetation cover, precipitation, geological formations, and distances from roads, rivers, and faults. The relevant thematic layers were derived using various data sources, including DEMs, Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, geological maps, and precipitation maps. Analytical tools in ArcGIS were employed to extract certain layers, such as distance from rivers and roads. The ANP model, which surpasses AHP in modeling interdependencies between criteria, was used for weighting and final analysis.
Results and Findings: According to the ANP weighting results, the variables with the highest influence on landslide occurrence were slope (0.27), geological formations (0.24), and precipitation (0.16). Spatial analysis further revealed that areas with steep slopes, weak volcanic and sedimentary formations, high rainfall, and proximity to faults and rivers had greater instability potential. In contrast, regions with dense vegetation, forest land use, and significant distances from roads and faults showed higher stability. The final GIS-based hazard zonation map classified the area into five risk levels, with 36% of the watershed falling into high and very high hazard zones. These high-risk areas were primarily concentrated in the upstream parts of the watershed, where the combination of steep topography, high rainfall, sparse vegetation, and unstable geological conditions contributes to widespread landslide susceptibility.

Abstract Background and Objective: In parallel with the ever-increasing urban population, the amount of construction in the city space has been developed. The development of construction in the horizontal space and regardless of the existing restrictions has led to environmental, economic and legal problems for the citizens. Achieving the amount, intensity and direction of development Construction from the past until now and forecasting the construction situation in the future is the first step towards the scientific and practical management of the physical development of urban construction, and planning and providing suitable solutions in order to create a balance between the spatial allocation of construction and all kinds of legal, economic and environmental considerations. The purpose of this research is to model and predict urban growth using satellite images and CA-Markov model.
Methodology: In this research, firstly, using multi-time Landsat images related to the years 1976, 2001 and 2021, land use changes were investigated, and then the spatial expansion of Gorgan city in  (2021 AD) and  (2050 AD) was predicted using the CA-Markov model. Based on the results of this research, the changes in land use and the level of land use in the area have been calculated and compared.  The geographical area of ​​this research is the city of Gorgan.
 Findings and Conclusion: The results of this research show that the largest increase in land use is related to urban land use (built land use), which increased from 6005.79 hectares in 2021 to 7141.66 hectares in 2050. Based on the results of this research, the growth of the city of Gorgan in the coming years will go towards the agricultural lands around the north, northwest and northeast.