Developing Effective Scenarios for Reducing Inequality in the Provision of Public Services in Urban regions of Urmia through a Futures Research Approach
Volume 7, Issue 2, Summer 2026, Pages 38-57
Behrouz Mohammad Rezapour, Mir Najaf Mousavi
Abstract Background and Objective: Urban public services are key elements in shaping the physical, social, and spatial structure of cities. In many urban Regions, especially in developing countries, access to services such as healthcare, education, transportation, and infrastructure is significantly unequal. The main objective of this study is to identify the key factors contributing to inequality in the provision of public services in the study area Urmia city and to develop future-oriented scenarios using futures research tools.
Methodology:This applied futures study employs a descriptive, analytical, and exploratory research approach. In the first stage, the TOPSIS ranking model was used to evaluate and rank the five urban regions based on their level of public services. Subsequently, possible future scenarios were generated using the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software.
Results and Findings: The results indicate that Region Five has the highest level of desirability, Regions One and Four are in a moderate state, and Regions Two and Three are in an unfavorable condition. Scenario analysis reveals two contrasting paths: a favorable scenario characterized by transparency, anti-corruption measures, and equitable resource distribution, which leads to reduced service gaps and improved access; and a crisis scenario marked by budget concentration in select Regions and institutional weakness, which intensifies inequalities. The study underscores the urgent need for action to address disparities in public service distribution and to ensure equitable access to essential urban facilities for all citizens, regardless of geographic location or economic status.