Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract Abstract
Background and Objective: Cities, particularly metropolises, in the contemporary era have undergone profound spatial and physical transformations under the simultaneous influence of global megatrends (economic globalization, technological advancements, accelerated urbanization, smart city development, vertical growth, and environmental sustainability) and domestic trends (expansion of informal settlements, emergence of high-rise construction and apartment living, deteriorated urban fabrics, inefficiency in urban land management, and infrastructural limitations).
This study, focusing on the metropolis of Tabriz — as one of Iran's historical, industrial, and cultural centers — examines the manner and extent of impact of these megatrends on the physical structure, spatial patterns, neighborhood identity, urban landscape, spatial inequalities, and overall quality of the urban environment. The primary objective is to identify points of conflict and interaction between global and local trends and to address the gap in integrated studies in this domain.
Methodology: The present research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach and is primarily based on the perspectives of local experts. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire. The respondent population consisted of 50 specialists and professionals active in the field of urban planning and development in Tabriz. Scores were collected on a 0–100 scale, averaged, and analyzed using multiple linear regression.
Findings and Conclusion: Descriptive results derived from the views of 50 urban planning experts and practitioners in Tabriz indicate that the impact of global and domestic megatrends on the physical structure and environmental quality of Tabriz is evaluated as moderate to relatively high (mean scores predominantly ranging between 62 and 73 on the 0–100 scale). The strongest consensus among experts centered on the following points:
- High-rise construction and skyscrapers have exerted a significant negative impact on the physical appearance of the city and its traditional identity (mean = 73). The current pattern of vertical development shows insufficient compatibility with the cultural and climatic characteristics of Tabriz (mean = 70.5).
- The expansion of informal settlements and deteriorated urban fabrics has acted as one of the most important factors generating socio-spatial discontinuity, urban inequalities, and spatial development incoherence (means ranging from 60.5 to 70). Tabriz and other Iranian metropolises still exhibit relative backwardness in the utilization of big urban data and smart city technologies (means ranging from 66.5 to 71.5). In contrast, modern technologies and urban smartization are assessed by experts as having high positive potential for improving energy efficiency, reducing pollution, increasing urban resilience, and enhancing overall urban environmental quality (means ranging from 67 to 72.5). Overall, global trends (vertical development, smartization, sustainability) and domestic trends (deteriorated fabrics, informal settlement, inefficient land management) in Tabriz simultaneously create both opportunities and challenges. Vertical development without cultural-local adaptation and the uncontrolled expansion of dysfunctional fabrics has severely threatened neighborhood identity, urban landscape, and social cohesion; meanwhile, smartization and emerging technologies can serve as key corrective levers for reducing spatial inequalities, enhancing resilience, and steering sustainable development. These findings indicate that the metropolis of Tabriz is at a critical stage of physical-spatial transformation.

Abstract The metropolitan city of Tabriz has experienced substantial spatial and physical transformations in recent decades due to the combined effects of global and local megatrends. Global forces such as economic globalization, technological advancement, rapid urbanization, smart-city development, environmental challenges, and climate change have significantly influenced urban systems. At the local level, informal settlement expansion, deteriorated urban fabrics, uncontrolled high-rise development, and weaknesses in land management have intensified urban challenges. As one of Iran’s major historical, industrial, and cultural centers, Tabriz provides a valuable case for examining the interaction between global transformations and local urban dynamics. Despite notable physical growth and limited smart-city initiatives, the city has lacked a comprehensive strategic framework for addressing emerging opportunities and challenges.

This study evaluates the transformability and future development prospects of the Tabriz metropolitan area, focusing on its spatial and physical dimensions in response to contemporary megatrends. A descriptive–analytical and applied research approach was adopted. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire containing 100 indicators related to 20 global and domestic megatrends. The study involved 50 experts in urban planning, urban development, and municipal management. Responses were measured using a five-point Likert scale and analyzed through descriptive statistics and a quantitative SWOT framework to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats affecting the city’s future development.

The findings indicate that the examined megatrends have a moderate to high impact on Tabriz’s physical structure and environmental quality. Uncontrolled high-rise construction and rapid vertical growth were identified as the most significant challenges, negatively affecting urban identity, visual coherence, and cultural character. The continued expansion of informal settlements and deteriorated urban areas was also found to contribute to spatial inequality and unbalanced development. Conversely, smart-city technologies, digital innovation, and resilience-oriented planning offer considerable potential for improving environmental quality, increasing energy efficiency, reducing pollution, and strengthening urban adaptability.

The SWOT analysis shows that Tabriz is positioned within a corrective–aggressive strategic framework. Major strengths include spatial diversity, urban regeneration capacity, strategic regional location, and existing technological infrastructure. Key weaknesses involve spatial inequality, uncontrolled vertical development, informal expansion, and weak integrated urban governance. Important opportunities arise from global trends promoting sustainable development, technological innovation, urban resilience, and spatial justice. The most significant threats include climate change, speculative investment pressures, and the gradual erosion of urban identity.

Based on these findings, the study recommends reducing spatial inequalities, upgrading informal settlements, regenerating deteriorated urban fabrics, managing vertical growth within a sustainable framework, attracting responsible investment, and enhancing urban resilience. The results emphasize that sustainable urban development in Tabriz depends on integrated policymaking, effective use of emerging technologies, and development strategies that balance local needs with global transformations. The proposed framework provides practical guidance for strengthening urban governance and promoting sustainable spatial development in the metropolitan area.