Futures Study of Social Housing Development in Tabriz Metropolis: Identification of Key Drivers and Scenario Analysis
Volume 7, Issue 3, Autumn 2026, Pages 363-386
Mohammad Reza Pourmohammadi, Hassan Mahmoudzadeh, Mehri Saadatjuye Asr
Abstract Background and Objective: Rapid urbanization and a sharp 30–50% rise in housing prices_compared to only 10–15% income growth_have severely restricted low-income groups’ access to social housing in Tabriz. Given that previous research has largely focused on physical-spatial variables without employing futures-oriented methodologies, this study aims to conduct a futures study of social housing development by identifying key drivers and analyzing probable scenarios. Methodology: This applied research adopts a mixed-method design, integrating documentary reviews, semi-structured interviews with 50 urban planning experts, and surveys completed by 150 Tabriz residents. Analytical procedures involved two stages: (1) structural analysis via MIC-MAC to map driving power and dependence among factors, and (2) scenario planning using Scenario Wizard based on the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method to generate and evaluate consistent future scenarios. Results and findings: The analysis identifies a mandatory “strategic triangle” _comprising innovative provision models, full financial sustainability, and intelligent quality monitoring which is present across all 15 plausible scenarios, underscoring that no viable future exists without these pillars. Physical/topographical constraints and infrastructural deficits persist as structural barriers. Among the scenarios, only 2 are desirable, 12 are stagnant, and 1 is critical; the most probable scenario (No. 1, TIS 65) projects a future where the strategic triangle is maintained alongside static government investment and enduring physical limitations.