Testing the sustainability of economic tourism in Ardabil province based on quantitative models
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 08 September 2025
Hatef Hazeri Niri, Behrouz Nezafat Taklhe, Maryam Maryam Jami
Abstract Background and Objective: The present study aimed to test the level of sustainability of economic tourism in these three cities based on the quantitative models of Zoros, Kobalikwa, and Feuillet.
Methodology: The research method is a combination of quantitative and descriptive-analytical methods and the required data are collected through official statistical sources, field questionnaires and secondary data. In the Kobalikova method, the criteria are placed in five groups. It covers almost all the features of geotourism. The value of each criterion in this model varies between zero and one (0-1). In the Violet method, geomorphosites and landforms were selected for study and evaluation based on four criteria: origin of formation, geographical distribution, tourism, and general accessibility status of this national park. The overall evaluation of geotourism and geomorphosites in this method is based on two main rates. In the Zoros method, scientific criteria of potential threats and usability are used to evaluate geosites, and each of the criteria used also has sub-criteria.
Findings and results: Based on the results obtained from the Kobalikwa model, Sarein County has obtained the highest score compared to other geotourism areas with a value of (74.6). The evaluation of the Zoros model also showed that among the geosites of Ardabil province (the studied areas), the Sarein geosite has the highest score with 74 points, and after this geosite, the Khalkhal and Germi geosites have obtained 68 and 58 points, respectively. Also, in the method of evaluating national parks, where the value of geotourism is evaluated in two parts: management rate and tourism rate, Sarein County, with a total score of (14.7), has diverse capabilities compared to other geotourism areas.
Conclusion: Therefore, it is concluded that Sarein County is in a relatively stable state in all three models due to its high concentration of tourism infrastructure, economic investment, and economic efficiency. Khalkhal County, despite its natural and ecotourism capacities, is ranked second due to its weakness in economic infrastructure. Despite its regional potential, Germi County has the lowest level of economic sustainability of tourism in terms of the three indicators. Finally, it is suggested that future studies should use various models and online questionnaires to evaluate the capabilities and capacities of economic tourism.
Keywords: : Economic tourism, sustainability, quantitative models, Ardabil province
The role of corporate governance in enhancing the impact of environmental investments on the operational sustainability of Iranian listed companies: a case study (Tehran Stock Exchange)
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 29 December 2025
Reza Fatahi
Abstract Abstract
This study examines the impact of environmental investments (E) on the operational sustainability of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and examines the moderating role of corporate governance (G) in this regard. Given the increasing regulatory pressures and stakeholder expectations regarding social and environmental responsibility, understanding the mechanisms that translate these investments into sustainable performance is of critical importance.
The statistical population includes listed companies over a ten-year period (2013-2014) and the data are estimated using a fixed effects (FE) regression model and a system of simultaneous equations. The dependent variable (Y) represents operational sustainability (a combination of water and energy consumption and operating costs). The main independent variable is environmental investments (E) and the moderating variable is the corporate governance index (G).
The results of the baseline model showed that environmental investments have a positive and significant effect on the operational sustainability of companies. The moderation hypothesis showed that with increasing levels of corporate governance, the coefficient of the positive effect of environmental investments on operational sustainability is strengthened. This finding suggests that a strong corporate governance structure increases stakeholder confidence and improves the efficiency of environmental resource allocation. Finally, policy recommendations emphasize the need to strengthen transparency and accountability in management structures to maximize the returns from green investments.
The effects of human development indicators and digitalization on environmental quality in selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 22 June 2026
Robab Mansouri, Seyed Kamal Sadeghi, Parviz Mohammadzadeh, Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Osgouei
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the effects of human development and digitalization indicators on environmental quality, with an emphasis on financial development, in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period 2002 to 2021. The research method is applied, and data were collected through documentary (library) methods. For data analysis, quantile econometric models and panel data approaches were employed, and the Hausman test was used to choose between fixed and random effects. The dependent variable is the ecological footprint index (EFINDEX) as a comprehensive measure of environmental quality. Independent variables include digitalization (DIG), natural resources (NAT), political stability (WGINDEX), financial development (FININDEX), human development (HDI), and gross domestic product (GDP). The financial development and political stability indices were transformed into composite indicators using Principal Component Analysis (PCA).
Descriptive findings indicate significant heterogeneity among MENA countries. Unit root test results show that, except for the political stability index and the ecological footprint index which became stationary at the first difference I(1), all other variables are stationary at levels I(0). Furthermore, the results of the Chow (Limer) and Hausman tests confirm the appropriateness of the panel data method with fixed effects for model estimation.
Quantile regression results across various quantiles (10% to 90%) reveal that the Human Development Index (HDI) has a positive and significant effect on environmental quality in most quantiles, particularly above the 60th quantile. The natural resources variable (NAT) also exhibits a positive and significant effect in most quantiles. The political stability index (WGINDEX) shows a negative and significant impact on ecological footprint in the 40% to 80% quantiles. Digitalization (DIG) has a positive and significant effect at the 80% and 90% quantiles, indicating that in high-performing countries, digital development can contribute to improving environmental quality. The financial development index (FININDEX) demonstrates a negative and significant effect at the 90% quantile. Gross domestic product (GDP) also has a positive and significant effect at the 80% and 90% quantiles.
Overall, the findings suggest that digital and economic growth can help improve environmental conditions; however, unsustainable exploitation of natural resources and political instability undermine environmental quality. Therefore, policymakers in MENA countries should adopt differentiated strategies—such as promoting clean technologies, strengthening environmental governance, and implementing green digital regulations—based on different development levels (low-income, middle-income, and high-income). Regional cooperation and the establishment of joint environmental funds are also essential for achieving sustainable development.
Measuring the effects of bank credits on urban development
Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 27 June 2026
امیرعلی farhang, Farzad Rahimzadeh, Armin sanati motaban
Abstract One of the factors influencing urban and regional development is access to financial resources and bank credit. Through mobilizing and allocating financial resources, the banking system provides the necessary conditions for investment, infrastructure development, increased production, and employment generation. In Iran's bank-based economy, bank credit plays a significant role in the development of different regions. However, disparities in the distribution of credit may contribute to regional inequalities. Therefore, examining the impact of bank credit on urban and regional development is essential for economic policymaking and the achievement of balanced development. To this end, data from Iran's provinces over the period 2006–2021 were utilized, and after testing for data stationarity, the proposed model was estimated using panel data techniques.
The findings indicate that per capita capital stock and per capita bank credit granted have had a positive and statistically significant effect on the growth of value added in the economic sectors of the provinces, thereby promoting urban development through increased production and employment. Furthermore, human capital indicators, including the number of university students per capita, the teacher-to-student ratio in secondary education, and the per capita number of physicians and hospital beds, have also exerted a positive and significant impact on urban development. In addition, government expenditure, through the expansion of infrastructure, education, and healthcare services, as well as urbanization through enhanced productivity, concentration of human capital, and improved access to public services, has contributed to per capita income growth and the improvement of urban development across the provinces
Investigating the Nonlinear Causal Relationship between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Iran: Markov Switching Nonlinear Causal Method
Volume 7, Issue 2, Summer 2026, Pages 410-428
Hamid Reza Panahi, Zahra Karimi Tekanloo, Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskoie
Abstract Background and Objective: Examining the relationship between government expenditures and revenues is crucial for economic growth and development. Understanding the causal relationship between government income and expenditures can significantly aid in formulating an important budgetary plan to achieve economic prosperity in a country. The relationship between government income and expenditures can indicate the level of government investment in key sectors of the economy (such as education, health, and infrastructure). Increased investment in these sectors leads to long-term economic growth.
Methodology: Given the importance of investigating the relationship between government spending and revenues, this study has examined this relationship and identified the cause-and-effect relationship using the Markov Switching method. The present study has applied the Markov Switching causality method to data from the period 1973-2022.
Results and Findings: The results indicate that in a state where both government revenues and expenditures are high, causality runs from government revenues (both other revenues and oil revenues) to construction and current expenditures. In contrast, in a state of low revenue and expenditure, oil revenue only leads to a change in development costs, and other revenues lead to a change in current costs. Examining the results from the expenditure side to government revenues separately for the two investigated regimes shows that during the zero regime (high revenues and expenditures), no causality is observed from development and current costs to revenue. Conversely, when the income and expenditure situation is low, only development costs can lead to a change in other revenues, and no causality is observed from current costs to government revenues.
Foresight of the Cooperative Sector in Ardabil Province by 2031 and presentation of regional development strategies
Volume 7, Issue 1, Winter 2026, Pages 268-289
Amir Ali Farhang
Abstract Background and Objective: Rapid technological developments (such as artificial intelligence, automation, and the digital economy), labor market fluctuations, demographic changes, and increasing societal expectations in the field of welfare require a review of new missions and mechanisms. This study aimed to conduct foresight analysis of the cooperative sector in Ardabil Province by 2031 and propose development strategies.
Methodology: The research was descriptive-inferential and foresight-oriented, employing a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. The statistical population consisted of 58 experts, government and non-government officials, cooperative members, and researchers in the cooperative sector, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected via Likert-scale questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and documentary studies. Various methods were used for data analysis: PESTEL analysis to identify macro-environmental factors, MICMAC method to examine interrelationships among key variables, and Shell scenario planning to develop future scenarios. Additionally, correlation analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test, SWOT analysis, TF-IDF technique, and K-Means clustering were applied for quantitative and qualitative data analysis.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that economic factors, such as inflation rates, and political factors, such as political stability, were the most influential. Technology was identified as a key driver, and scenarios of economic stagnation and water scarcity threats were deemed the most likely futures. The absence of significant differences among respondent groups facilitated unified policymaking. Ultimately, strategies such as leveraging strengths to capitalize on opportunities, focusing on key factors, preparing for likely scenarios, and promoting technological development were proposed. These findings can assist policymakers and cooperative managers in formulating sustainable development strategies. While numerous studies on foresight and related topics have been conducted domestically and internationally, no research has been observed specifically on the foresight of the cooperative sector in Ardabil Province.
Identifying and ranking factors affecting financing of small and medium-sized businesses in East and West Azerbaijan provinces
Volume 7, Issue 1, Winter 2026, Pages 290-316
Ali Mahamad Salahi, Reza Ranjpour, Sajad Naghdi, Zahra Karimi Tekanloo
Abstract Background and Objective: Financing is a critical pillar for the growth and sustainability of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which play a key role in job creation, GDP growth, and innovation. In East and West Azerbaijan provinces, despite potentials such as border locations and free trade zones, SMEs face challenges like complex loan acquisition processes, heavy collateral requirements, and high interest rates. This study aims to identify, analyze, and rank factors affecting SME financing in these provinces to provide practical guidance for policymakers.
Methodology: This study employed a mixed-method (qualitative-quantitative) approach. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews with 18 experts (purposively selected) and thematic analysis using Jupyter Notebook identified initial factors. In the quantitative phase, data from 100 SME managers were analyzed using DEMATEL and DANP techniques. Calculations were performed in Python, with reliability (Cronbach’s alpha: 0.918) and validity (factor analysis explaining 69.9% of variance) confirmed.
Results and Findings: Key factors include access to loans (weight: 0.076602), government support (weight: 0.077008), and financial credit (weight: 0.076977). Critical components identified include a detailed business plan and managerial experience. It is recommended to enhance SME access through flexible financing and targeted support.The study’s innovation lies in using DEMATEL and DANP to analyze complex relationships in the specific context of these provinces, offering a practical framework for policymaking that can serve as a model for other regions.
Identifying factors affecting the internationalization process of digital startups in Iran
Volume 7, Issue 1, Winter 2026, Pages 317-339
Mahmoud Sarabi, Behzad Salmani, Younis Jabarzadeh, Mohammad Mehdi Barghi Oskoee
Abstract Background and Objective: In recent decades, digital transformations and globalization have created novel opportunities for digital startups to expand beyond national borders. In Iran, despite the remarkable growth of the startup ecosystem and a young, talented human resource pool, the internationalization process of these companies faces multifaceted challenges, including economic and political sanctions, financial restrictions, and weak international networks. These barriers threaten the success of startups in global markets and underscore the need for a systematic analysis of influencing factors. The objective of this research is to identify and model key factors affecting the internationalization process of Iranian digital startups, focusing on barriers, opportunities, and interrelationships, to provide a practical conceptual framework for stakeholders such as policymakers, investors, and entrepreneurs.
Methodology: This study employs a mixed-methods qualitative-quantitative approach. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 experts from Iran's startup ecosystem (using snowball sampling until saturation), identifying influencing factors and categorizing them into 6 dimensions and 41 components via thematic analysis (using MaxQDA software). In the quantitative phase, inter-dimensional relationships were analyzed using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and a self-interaction matrix, with model stability assessed through MICMAC analysis.
Results and Findings: The findings reveal six main dimensions: strategic and business model, marketing and customer interaction, cultural and international, infrastructural and legal, human resources and team, and supportive and financial. Marketing and cultural factors rank at the first level (linkage and vital), infrastructural and human at the second (autonomous), and financial at the third (independent). The ISM model emphasizes that successful internationalization requires a focus on cultural adaptation and marketing strategies, while financial and infrastructural supports play a facilitating role. The results urge policymakers to strengthen international networks and cultural empowerment, offering suggestions for future research such as comparative analyses and the role of emerging technologies. This model provides a practical framework to accelerate the internationalization of Iranian startups.
Investigating the Nonlinear Effects of Globalization on Labor Productivity in Iraq country
Volume 6, Issue 3, Autumn 2025, Pages 19-36
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj, Mostafa Mohammad Obaid
Abstract Background and Objective: In recent years, with the increasing discussions about globalization and the diversity of perspectives on it, examining the impact of globalization on macroeconomic variables, including productivity, has become an attractive topic in the academic literature. Studying and examining the effects of globalization on labor productivity is of great importance for several reasons, as it provides insights into how global economic integration affects labor efficiency, economic growth, and overall development. Studying the effects of globalization on labor productivity growth is essential for understanding economic dynamics, informing policies, increasing competitiveness, and preparing the workforce for future challenges. This knowledge enables countries and businesses to reap the benefits of globalization while addressing its challenges, ultimately contributing to sustainable economic growth and improving living standards. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of globalization on labor productivity in Iraq.
Methodology: In order to investigate the nonlinear effects of globalization on labor productivity in Iraq during the period 1995-2022, the nonlinear extensive lags (NARDL) model was used in this study. Also, the symmetry or asymmetry of the effects of globalization on labor productivity in Iraq was examined.
Findings and Conclusion: The findings of this study showed that the positive impulses of globalization had positive and significant effects on labor productivity. However, the effects of negative impulses of globalization on labor productivity were not significant. Considering these effects, it can be concluded that the more Iraq is exposed to economic globalization, the more it will benefit from its benefits. Given the positive and significant impact of the human development index on labor productivity, it can be suggested that Iraqi politicians make the right and long-term decisions to strengthen this index by improving educational conditions at different levels of education, improving health and treatment conditions, and life expectancy, so that in addition to benefiting from the indirect effects of this index, the level of labor productivity as one of the main keys to sustainable development is strengthened and made more sustainable. Based on the results, it is necessary to emphasize that human development and its improvement cannot lead to improved productivity growth without interruption, and its effects will gradually emerge over time. Also, based on the negative and significant effects of the inflation rate on labor productivity, the Central Bank of Iraq should make more efforts and efforts to control the volume of liquidity as the main cause of inflation in the economies of countries. Finally, considering the positive and significant impact of foreign direct investment on labor productivity, the Iraqi government can take a major step towards improving labor productivity by reducing domestic risks and increasing its political and economic security by increasing foreign investment, in addition to taking advantage of its other positive effects.
Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Cycles on Economic Development: The Case Study Country Iraq
Volume 6, Issue 2, Summer 2025, Pages 114-125
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj, Mohammad Hasanzadeh, Hossein Ali Sajjad
Abstract Abstract
Background and Objective: Economic growth and development over the past two decades in developing countries have clearly demonstrated the many effects of financial market cycles on economic activities in these countries. Instability and change in financial markets shape financial cycles, which in turn disrupt economic activities and reduce the economic growth of countries. Therefore, given the importance of the effects of financial cycles on economic growth, the aim of this study is to analyze and investigate the effects of asymmetric financial cycles on economic growth in Iraq.
Methodology: The present study analyzes and investigates the short-term and long-term effects of asymmetric financial cycles on economic growth in Iraq during the period 1990-2023 in the form of econometric models and methods. For this purpose, the autoregressive model with asymmetric distribution lag (NARDL) is used. This model is an extended form of the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model.
Results: The results showed that in the long run, positive financial cycles have a positive and significant effect and negative financial cycles have a negative and significant effect on Iraq's economic growth. Also, foreign trade, exchange rate, active labor force, physical capital and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect, and oil revenues have a negative and significant effect on Iraq's economic growth. The explanatory and control variables (asymmetric financial cycles, foreign trade, exchange rate, physical capital, active labor force, foreign direct investment and oil revenues) also explain and show 75 percent of the changes in the target variable (Iraqi economic growth).
Conclusion: Given that financial cycles and foreign trade have the greatest impact on economic growth in the short and long run, therefore, monitoring credit expansion through macroprudential policies is essential to maintain financial stability in this country. Also, the Iraqi government can lead to increased economic growth by gradually creating conditions and establishing appropriate and necessary laws and regulations to expand commercial freedom and increase trade.
The Impact of Good Regional Governance, Natural Resource Abundance, and Foreign Direct Investment on Agricultural Employment (A Case Study of Selected Developing Countries)
Volume 6, Issue 2, Summer 2025, Pages 141-151
Ali Sardar Shahraki, Hajar Esna Ashari, Hossein Ebrahimzadeh Asmin
Abstract Background and Objective: One of the issues that currently affects employment is good regional governance and foreign direct investment in countries with abundant natural resources. The effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth has been widely studied in economic studies, but a study that examines the effect of good regional governance, natural resource abundance, and foreign direct investment on employment has not been conducted. The aim of this article is to examine the effect of foreign direct investment, good regional governance, and natural resources on employment in the agricultural sector for 15 selected developing countries.
Methodology: In this regard, a regression model has been estimated using panel data for the selected countries in the period 2011-2023.
Findings and Conclusion: According to the results obtained, foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on employment in the agricultural sector. Good regional governance has a positive and significant effect on employment in the agricultural sector. Also, the abundance of natural resources has a negative and significant effect on employment in the agricultural sector. Good regional governance and the attraction of foreign investment have a positive impact on employment, which increases employment in the agricultural sector by improving the political climate, protecting property rights, and enforcing contracts
Asymmetric Effects of Inflation on Unemployment Rate in Iraq country Using Quantile Regression Method
Volume 6, Issue 4, Winter 2025, Pages 1-14
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj, Abbas Ali Mohammad Al-Tamimi
Abstract Background and Objective: Investigating the factors affecting the unemployment rate as one of the most important macroeconomic indicators has been one of the topics studied by many researchers, scholars, and policymakers. The existence of a stable and balanced relationship between inflation and unemployment is very important and fundamental for maintaining international competitiveness in the economy. Uncontrolled inflation can greatly reduce the country's competitiveness by increasing production costs, reducing export competitiveness, and attracting less foreign investment. . Given the importance of the issue, the main objective of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of inflation on the unemployment rate in Iraq.
Methodology: In this study, the quantile regression method was used to investigate the asymmetric effects of inflation on the unemployment rate in Iraq during the period 1995 to 2023.
Findings and Conclusion: The results show that the inflation rate had a positive and significant effect on the unemployment rate, and these effects were strengthened in the high quantiles of the unemployment rate. Also, according to the results, the effects of inflation on the unemployment rate in Iraq were symmetric. According to these results, it can be concluded that the Phillips curve, which indicates an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, is not confirmed in Iraq. Therefore, to improve the unemployment rate, supply-side policies should be used and demand-side policies should be avoided.
The impact of factors affecting economic growth fluctuations in oil-producing countries towards sustainable regional development (Case study: Iraq)
Volume 5, Issue 4, Winter 2025, Pages 200-213
Mohammad hasanzadeh, Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj, Salah Naji Saleh
Abstract Background and Objective: Due to oil price fluctuations, oil exporting countries can be accompanied by income instability and economic growth. This study examines the effect of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth fluctuations in Iraq and the moderating role of financial development. Accordingly, the main objective of the study is to answer the question of whether financial development can reduce economic growth fluctuations in the context of oil revenue fluctuations.
Methodology: The present study was conducted using the generalized moments method and time series data to examine the effect of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth fluctuations and the moderating role of financial development. This method allows for the analysis and examination of the dynamics between macroeconomic variables.
Findings and Results: The findings show that fluctuations due to the abundance of oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on economic growth fluctuations. Also, financial development can play an effective moderating role in reducing the fluctuations in economic growth caused by fluctuations in oil revenues. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that further development of the financial system can reduce the negative effects of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth and financial development can be considered as an effective tool in managing the effects of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth in Iraq.
The Impact of Information and Communication Technology and the Global Competitiveness Index on Economic Growth of Selected Countries
Volume 6, Issue 1, Winter 2025, Pages 283-296
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj, Mohammad hasanzadeh, Mojtaba Abdulwahid Brij
Abstract Background and Objective: Information and Communication Technology and competitiveness are mentioned as factors affecting economic growth in the last decade. In line with this discussion, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of information and communication technology and the competitiveness index on economic growth of selected developing and developed countries during the study period.
Research Methodology: The present study uses an applied approach that combines descriptive and analytical methods to create a complete survey. To facilitate this research, the analysis uses both cross-sectional and panel data methods. Cross-sectional data allows for the examination of variables at a single point in time across multiple subjects. In contrast, panel data includes multiple observations of the same entities over different time periods. It also analyzes panel data through the generalized method of moments.
Findings and Conclusions: The findings of this study emphasize the positive and significant relationships between information and communication technology, competitiveness index on GDP in developing and developed countries. In a way that is consistent with the literature on the subject. The findings also indicate that the effect of these two variables is greater in developed countries than in developing countries. Therefore, policymakers should consider the socio-economic factors and unique contexts of their countries to effectively use these dynamics for sustainable and inclusive growth.
Investigating the factors affecting the inflation rate with an emphasis on exchange rate fluctuations in the Iraqi economy
Volume 6, Issue 1, Winter 2025, Pages 297-314
Ghazi Mahmoud Neda, Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj
Abstract Background and Aim: According to economic literature, excessive inflation (more than the sustainable level of inflation) destroys purchasing power, distorts economic decision-making, and leads to uncertainty in economic factors, while deflation (less than the sustainable level of inflation) can lead to a decrease in spending (consumption) and investment, and potentially stop economic growth. The aim of this research is to use the results obtained from examining the factors affecting the inflation rate in order to increase the efficiency of monetary policy and control inflation.
Methodology: In this study, time series econometric techniques (unit root and stationary concepts, variability models, and autoregression with distributed lags (ARDL) model) have been used. First, the stationary variables are examined by performing classical and nonlinear unit root tests with respect to structural failure. Next, the long-term relationship between the research variables is examined by the bounds test, and then long-term and short-term elasticities are extracted. Exchange rate fluctuations are also extracted by conditional heteroskedasticity models (GARCH) and then these variables will be entered as new explanatory variables in the autoregression with distributed lags (ARDL) model.
Findings and Conclusion: According to the results obtained, the two variables, the exchange rate volatility index and the degree of trade openness, are the most important determinants of the inflation rate in Iraq in the long run. Meanwhile, in the short run, the exchange rate volatility index does not affect the inflation rate. Exchange rate fluctuations can affect trade and investment between affect the international economy, because uncertainty in the exchange rate can stop foreign investment and affect export competitiveness, and also increase import inflation. The increase in the degree of trade openness causes global commodity inflation to quickly affect the Iraqi economy and increase the consumption costs of Iraqi citizens. Also, according to the results, the error correction coefficient is negative and equal to -0/36 Therefore, in each year, 0/36 of the imbalance in the inflation rate in one period is adjusted in the next period. It can be said that the adjustment towards equilibrium is carried out slowly, which depends on the macroeconomic environment of Iraq.
Economic factors affecting the improvement of human development in Ardabil province
Volume 5, Issue 3, Autumn 2024, Pages 205-219
Hatef Hazeri Niri, Maryam Jami Odulu, Behrouz nezafat taklhe
Abstract Background and Objective: Over the past few decades, discussions related to human development and its impact on economic growth have been of particular importance. The Human Development Index is a combination of three key components: life expectancy, per capita income, and literacy level, and is used to measure the level of development, analyze spatial justice, and regional inequality at the national and regional levels. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to investigate the economic factors affecting the improvement of the Human Development Index in Ardabil province. The type of research is descriptive-analytical.
Methodology: The method of this study is based on quantitative-spatial approaches. The research method used in this study is a combination of documentary-library methods. In the analytical section, by considering the indicators and considerations of human development in the form of 13 target indicators, the economic factors affecting the improvement of the Human Development Index in Ardabil province have been examined on a case-by-case basis. To collect the required information, the main reliance was on the documents of the National Statistics Center, and the Morris model, GIS software, and Spss were used to analyze the collected data.
Findings and Conclusion: The results show that in terms of human development index, the three counties of Ardabil, Parsabad, and Meshginshahr are in the highest ranks, and the three counties of Kowsar, Namin, and Sarein are in the lowest ranks. Also, the spatial distribution of the human development index among the counties of the province shows that the central and northern counties of the province have relatively better conditions than the southern counties. Regarding the factors affecting the human development index, the results of the article showed that the indicators of rural percentage, household size, unemployment rate, dependency burden, actual dependency burden, theoretical dependency burden, and percentage of industrial sector employees, with correlation coefficients of 0.726, 0.768, 0.245, 0.512, 0.512, and 0.598, respectively, had a statistically significant negative relationship with the human development index, and the indicators of urbanization percentage, employment rate, economic participation rate, women's economic participation rate, percentage of agricultural sector employees, and percentage of service sector employees, with correlation coefficients of 0.726, 0.245, 0.395, 0.101, and 0.435, respectively, had a statistically significant positive relationship with the human development index.
The Impact of government financial policies on Private Sector Consumption and Employment in Iraq
Volume 5, Issue 3, Autumn 2024, Pages 240-256
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj, Mohammad hassanzadeh, Zaid Ali Sabah
Abstract Background and purpose: Government financial policies are one of the macroeconomic policies to improve or control economic variables, including the level of total consumption and employment. Based on this, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of government financial policies, including changes in government expenditures and taxes, on private sector consumption and employment in Iraq in different economic conditions.
Methodology: This research was conducted using vector autoregression model to analyze time series data. This method provides the possibility of examining dynamic relationships between financial policies and macroeconomic variables such as consumption and employment.
Findings and results: The findings show that increasing government spending generally increases private sector consumption, but the effects of taxes are more complex and depend on economic conditions. Also, tax changes have different effects on employment and can be positive or negative depending on the initial employment level and economic conditions. Therefore, the findings show that the government's financial policies act as an effective tool in stimulating or reducing private consumption and employment. Therefore, based on the findings, it can be concluded that in order to improve the effects of financial policies on economic variables in Iraq, there is a need to regulate financial policies in order to reduce their negative effects on macroeconomic variables.
Investigating the Function of Energy Demand in the Residential Sector of Rural and Urban Families in Ilam Province by Regression of Seemingly Unrelated Equations
Volume 2, Issue 2, Summer 2021, Pages 45-60
kobra Tanhaei, Ali Sayehmiri
Abstract Modeling of energy demand in different consumer sectors is an important step for better management and appropriate policy to increase productivity in the energy sector. The residential sector is one of the most important components of energy consumption in Iran and the Ilam province. The aim of this study was to investigate the energy demand function in the household sector of Ilam province. The research method was performed using an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and Regression of Seemingly Unrelated Equations for the period of 1988 to 2018. The results of the evaluation of the model as constrained and non-constrained models show that the self-price elasticity in these two cases is not significantly different from each other and all price elasticities agree with the theoretical foundations. Since the existence of homogeneity constraint in this model has been confirmed. The results of income elasticity show that this group is an essential commodity for households in Ilam province. The price elasticity of energy demand includes gas and electricity in the non-constrained model of -2.02 and in the constrained model of -0.04, which indicates the attractiveness of this group of goods in the consumption basket of households of Ilam. Also, the results of income elasticity of the unrestricted model show that the energy commodity group (including electricity and natural gas), another commodity group, clothing, and housing are among the luxury goods, and the health and food commodity group are among the essential goods. They are going. Also, based on income elasticities, the model of the constrained commodity group of energy (electricity and natural gas) is considered a semi-essential commodity. Housing and other commodity groups are also considered as luxury goods, as well as food and clothing commodity groups are considered as semi-essential goods groups and health goods groups are considered as essential commodity groups.
