Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract Abstract Background and Aim Land use change modeling is an essential tool for environmental analysis, planning, and management. Among the basic objectives of this research is to investigate and understand the changes in land uses in Region 7 of Tabriz between 2000 and 2020 using remote sensing technology and satellite images. And also to predict these changes for the next 20 years. To predict the changes, the Markov chain cell model was used for prediction. Among other objectives, it can be mentioned to find out the use that has and will have the most changes and increases.
Methodology: Land use change modeling is an essential tool for environmental analysis, planning, and management. The main objective of this research is to investigate and evaluate land use changes in Tabriz city over a 20-year period (from 2000 to 2020). This goal is achieved by extracting land use maps for the years 2000 and 2020 through satellite images and obtaining the changes that have occurred in land use during this period, and finally predicting these changes using a Markov model.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that although the region has a large area of barren land, the residential area has grown significantly between 2000 and 2020 and will continue to grow in the future. This indicates a positive and increasing trend in urban and residential areas that should be taken into account. Between 2000 and 2020, we have witnessed a sharp decrease in green space, which can be a warning for managers and decision-makers. Urban green space is an important land use within the city and on the outskirts of the city, and its absence causes environmental problems and .... Also, residential land use will have the most changes at the regional level for the next 20 years, and it was proven that the maximum likelihood classification model has appropriate accuracy for classifying satellite data.
Conclusion: The overall results showed that although the region has a large area of barren land, the residential area has grown significantly between 2000 and 2020 and will continue to grow in the future, indicating a positive and increasing trend in urban and residential areas that should be taken into account. Between 2000 and 2020, we have witnessed a sharp decline in green space, which can be a warning for managers and decision-makers. Urban green space is an important use within the city and on the outskirts of the city, and its absence causes environmental problems and .... Industrial areas have also enjoyed significant growth in the past 20 years, and the growth of this use and its positive and increasing

Abstract Background and Objective: The Urmia Plain, as one of the most sensitive ecosystems in western Iran, has undergone extensive land use transformations in recent decades under the pressure of anthropogenic activities and environmental changes. These changes can have irreversible consequences for food security, local livelihoods, and environmental health. This study aimed to identify and quantitatively analyze the trends of land use and land cover (LULC) change in the Urmia Plain over a 36-year period (1984-2020) using Landsat satellite imagery.
Methodology: This study utilized Landsat 5 (TM), Landsat 7 (ETM+), and Landsat 8 (OLI) satellite images from 1984, 2000, and 2020. After performing necessary preprocessing steps, supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) algorithm was implemented in ENVI software. Land use maps were extracted for six main classes (agriculture and orchard, rangeland, built-up, barren land, water bodies, and salt marshes), and their accuracy was assessed using an error matrix and the metrics of overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that over the study period, the extent of agriculture and orchard lands (increasing from 22% to 26%) and built-up areas increased, while water bodies (33%) and rangelands (22%) experienced a concerning declining trend. Concurrently, the area of barren lands and salt marshes also increased. A comparison of the two time periods revealed that the degradation process has accelerated, particularly after the year 2000, leading to the establishment of a detrimental degradation cycle, which underscores the urgent need for revising management strategies.

Abstract Background and Objective: Regional development in many parts of the country faces challenges such as spatial inequalities, weak infrastructure, and planning inefficiencies, and Ilam Province is no exception. In such conditions, spatial planning, as a scientific approach to organizing space, can play an effective role in improving development efficiency. The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of different dimensions of spatial planning on regional development inefficiency in Ilam city
Methodology: This study is applied-developmental in terms of objective and descriptive-analytical in nature. The required data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire based on environmental-physical, social, economic, and institutional indicators. For data analysis, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) method and AMOS software were employed, and the model’s fit was evaluated using standard indices. Furthermore, Cronbach’s alpha was used to measure the reliability of the instrument, and factor loadings and related tests were utilized for construct validity.
Results and Findings: Research findings indicate that various dimensions of Spatial Planning have a significant impact on reducing the inefficiency of regional development. Among these, the environmental-physical dimension has the most significant impact, while the institutional dimension has the least direct impact, although its indirect effects are noteworthy. Furthermore, the overall construct of Spatial Planning demonstrated a strong positive influence on improving regional development. The results suggest that attention to the principles of Spatial Planning, strengthening infrastructure, upgrading services, and improving the quality of governance can pave the way for more balanced development in Ilam province.

Abstract Background and Objective: Urban public services are key elements in shaping the physical, social, and spatial structure of cities. In many urban Regions, especially in developing countries, access to services such as healthcare, education, transportation, and infrastructure is significantly unequal. The main objective of this study is to identify the key factors contributing to inequality in the provision of public services in the study area Urmia city and to develop future-oriented scenarios using futures research tools.
Methodology:This applied futures study employs a descriptive, analytical, and exploratory research approach. In the first stage, the TOPSIS ranking model was used to evaluate and rank the five urban regions based on their level of public services. Subsequently, possible future scenarios were generated using the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software.
Results and Findings: The results indicate that Region Five has the highest level of desirability, Regions One and Four are in a moderate state, and Regions Two and Three are in an unfavorable condition. Scenario analysis reveals two contrasting paths: a favorable scenario characterized by transparency, anti-corruption measures, and equitable resource distribution, which leads to reduced service gaps and improved access; and a crisis scenario marked by budget concentration in select Regions and institutional weakness, which intensifies inequalities. The study underscores the urgent need for action to address disparities in public service distribution and to ensure equitable access to essential urban facilities for all citizens, regardless of geographic location or economic status.

Abstract Background and Objective: Border regions face serious security and development challenges. Rapid global changes have exposed these regions to new threats and opportunities. For this reason, foresight regarding these regions is of great importance. In this regard, the present study, with a futures approach, has analyzed the key role of parameters affecting security and sustainable development in the border city of Kamyaran.
Methodology: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. Data collection tools are in the form of library sources and documents and survey (questionnaire). The research area is the city of Kamyaran. The statistical sample of this research is 40 experts in the field of urban planning and sociology.
Findings and Results: The Delphi method and the cross-effects matrix (Micmac) were used to analyze the data. The research findings showed that out of 27 parameters affecting security and sustainable development in border cities, 19 parameters were identified as key and influential, and these variables have the most and least impact on the future of security and sustainable development in the border city of Kamyaran. and finally, the results showed that in terms of direct impact, the parameters of terrorist threats, unemployment rate, and crime rate are in the first to third positions with scores of 71, 66, and 65, respectively, and the parameters that have an indirect impact on security and sustainable development in the border city of Kamyaran are terrorist threats, crime rate, and unemployment rate with scores of 160,403, 151,603, and 147,612, respectively. The general results of this research showed that the border city of Kamyaran is in a critical situation in terms of security and sustainable development. However, the findings of this study can serve as a valuable guide for decision-makers, planners, and investors to take appropriate measures to create a brighter future for this city.

Abstract Background and Objective: Location selection is one of the strategic elements in the development of a country's defense infrastructure, requiring precise analysis of environmental, climatic, and human factors using modern spatial approaches. Therefore, the objective of this research is to investigate the role of climatic and geomorphological factors affecting the site selection of military garrisons in Moghan Plain, located in Ardabil Province, by utilizing remote sensing and GIS capabilities.
Methodology: To fulfill the research objective, 14 relevant criteria were selected, including precipitation, temperature, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, land use, distance from rivers, faults, roads, cities, villages, and geology. The required spatial layers were derived from remote sensing data sources such as Sentinel-2 imagery, the 12.5-meter ALOS PALSAR Digital Elevation Model, and global climate datasets including TerraClimate, and were processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. Subsequently, training sample points representing suitable and unsuitable locations were defined, and the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was trained and applied to produce the final suitability zoning map.
Results and Findings: The variable importance analysis indicated that proximity to cities and villages, slope, vegetation cover, and distance from geological faults were the most influential factors in military base site selection within the study area. The final suitability map classified the region into five categories: very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, unsuitable, and very unsuitable. Notably, portions of the northern and eastern sections of the Moghan Plain were identified as very suitable zones. This study demonstrates that the integration of machine learning algorithms with remote sensing data offers a robust and efficient approach for spatial analysis and supports strategic decision-making in the defense and military planning sectors.
Conclusion: The findings of this study can support the optimization of military base site selection by integrating strategic, environmental, and security-related criteria. Such an approach has the potential to enhance military operational efficiency, strengthen crisis management capabilities, reduce infrastructure development costs, and minimize vulnerability to natural hazards.

Abstract Background and Objective: Given the increasing trend of global urbanization, studying and monitoring the expansion of urban constructions is of great importance, as the growth of such structures often leads to significant changes in land surface cover. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to analyze and investigate the trend of expansion of urban constructions in a part of Noor County, Mazandaran Province.
Methodology: In this study, land use maps of the study area for the period 2005–2025 were extracted using Landsat 5 and 8 satellite imagery and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. Additionally, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) tool was employed to assess the temporal-spatial patterns of change during this period.
Results and Findings: The The findings of this study indicate that the area of urban constructions in the region increased from 33.07 km² in 2005 to 92.7 km² in 2015, and further to 97.15 km² in 2025. Accordingly, the extent of constructions in proximity to the cities of the region has shown greater growth due to increased construction activities. Assessments reveal the inevitable impact of the expansion of constructions on the reduction of other land use types in the region. By 2025, approximately 99.8 km² of the region have been directly affected by the expansion of constructions, with pastures and agricultural lands experiencing the most significant impacts in this regard. The results of this study highlight the increasing trend of expansion of human constructions in parallel with the region’s population growth and underscore the importance of adopting land use planning and programs to optimally manage land use in line with sustainable territorial development.

Abstract Background and Objective: The use of information technology tools plays an important role in the financial efficiency of small businesses. These tools enable better resource management, cost reduction, and operational process improvement. In small businesses with limited financial and human resources, the use of information technology as a strategic factor can help improve financial performance.
Research Methodology: The purpose of this study is to investigate how to use information technology to optimize processes and increase productivity in local businesses (case study: Urmia city). This research is applied-theoretical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The required information and data were collected through library and field methods. Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy BWM methods were used in this study.
Findings and Conclusion: The main goal is to identify and analyze the opportunities and challenges facing these businesses in the field of IT application, and to provide practical solutions to improve their performance. The importance of this research stems from the vital role of local businesses in the city's economic development, job creation, and improving the quality of life of citizens. The results are that the criterion, online presence (C2) with a weight of 0.16 has obtained the first priority, the criterion, internet access (C1) with a weight of 0.132 has obtained the second priority, and the criterion, increasing productivity (C9) with a weight of 0.082 has obtained the third priority. Also, the research consistency rate is 0.076, which indicates high consistency of the pairwise comparison.

Abstract Background and Objective: The optimal location of military bases is one of the major challenges in the planning and development of defense infrastructure. Selecting an appropriate site for these facilities requires a thorough assessment of various environmental, strategic, and social factors to ensure security while minimizing negative impacts on natural resources and communities.
Methodology: In this study, the optimal location of military bases in Khalkhal County was determined using remote sensing data and the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model within a GIS environment. For this purpose, 12 effective variables were considered, including distance from rivers, geology, elevation, slope, slope direction, land use, vegetation cover, distance from faults, distance from roads, distance from villages, distance from cities, and soil type. The required data were extracted from various sources, such as ASTER sensor images, GLC-FCS30D database, Sentinel-2 satellite images, and geological maps. In the ANP process, criteria were initially classified into two clusters: natural and human-made, and then, pairwise comparisons were performed using Super Decisions software to determine the relative weights of the criteria. Subsequently, the initial, weighted, and final supermatrices were formed to determine the final weight of the criteria.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that areas with medium vegetation cover, slopes less than 10 degrees, brown steppe soils, and barren land are more favorable for the establishment of military bases. Furthermore, appropriate distances from faults, rivers, and human settlements were considered as key factors in decision-making. Analysis of elevation, slope, slope direction, vegetation cover, and land use maps revealed that the central and eastern regions of the county, due to their convenient access to infrastructure and stable environmental conditions, are the best options for establishing military bases.
Conclusion: The results of this study can contribute to the optimization of military base location by considering strategic, environmental, and security criteria. This would enhance the efficiency of military operations, improve crisis management, reduce infrastructure costs, and decrease vulnerability to natural disasters.

Abstract Background and Objective: Changes in the volume and quality of water resources in the Middle East cause political and military tensions. This research seeks to evaluate the role of water scarcity on Iran's geopolitical tensions with its neighbors.
Methodology: The study method in this research is applied, descriptive-analytical. The research data are the result of library and field studies with a survey of 21 experts familiar with hydrology and political science. The evaluation of the research questionnaires is done with the help of TOPSIS management methods and hierarchical analysis, as well as the scenario writing method in Expert Choice, Excel, and Scenario Wizard software
 Results and findings: The research results indicate that based on the TOPSIS method, the Hirmand basin has the smallest distance to the ideal solution with a value of 0.91, indicating that this basin is the most tense basin at present and will probably be in similar conditions in the future. Also, the future of Turkish dam projects has a 67% probability of being credible, leading to a war between the countries involved in the Gap project, which will have security consequences for Turkish Kurdistan, Iraq, Syria and Iran, and a future full of violence is imagined for it. In the aspect of internal management, in addition to climate change, internal factors such as economic issues (capital and technology), incorrect management and policies have contributed to the effects of water resource shortages in the country.

Abstract Background and Objective: Today, we see that in developed countries and most of the developing countries of the world, urban and metropolitan areas, like other residential centers, have formal and defined geographic and management systems. These types of management institutions are responsible for formulating the integrated development policy of urban and metropolitan areas and creating coordination between the programs, policies and actions of management institutions that are influential in urban development. Therefore, the management of cities has special sensitivity and complexities. These types of complications exist in most management systems. In fact, it can be said that urban management is an effort to manage the complex and systemic phenomenon of the city.
Methodology: Based on this, the present research has been conducted with the aim of investigating the influencing factors on the political-administrative management of space in Kashan city and by using of the Fuzzy Dematel method. To achieve this purpose, four political-security, geographic-communication, social-cultural and legal factors and 23 indicators influencing the political management of space in Kashan city were extracted.
Findings and Results: The findings of the research show that the legal factor that has the highest amount of D+R has the most interaction with other dimensions, and the socio-cultural factor that has the highest amount of D-R has the greatest impact (influence) on other dimensions. Also, in the field of interaction and relationship between the government and urban management in Kashan city, the index of existing laws and the index of spirit of cooperation-atmosphere, which respectively have the highest amount of D+R and D-R, have the greatest influence on other indicators.

Abstract Background and Objective: The quality of rural settlement environments is one of the key factors influencing place attachment, population retention, and social sustainability. In recent years, especially in peri-urban villages affected by rapid urbanization processes, attention to the link between environmental conditions and residents’ perceptions and attachment to place has gained increasing importance. This study aims to examine and analyze the impact of rural environmental quality on place attachment in rural settlements, with Em al-Tamr village, located on the outskirts of Ahvaz metropolitan area, as a case study.
Methodology: The research is applied in terms of objective and descriptive–analytical in terms of methodology. Data were collected through library studies and field surveys using questionnaires. The study population consisted of the residents of Em al-Tamr village, and the sample size was determined as 356 individuals based on Cochran’s formula. For data analysis, the Marcus multi-criteria decision-making model and Pearson correlation test were employed. Findings indicate a positive and significant relationship between rural environmental quality and place attachment. The Marcus model results show that environmental cleanliness and the beauty of the natural landscape have the highest desirability among environmental indicators. Moreover, Pearson correlation results revealed that the strongest associations with place attachment were related to natural landscape beauty, environmental cleanliness, and preservation of the village’s traditional texture.
Results and Findings: These findings suggest that environmental and identity-related factors play a more prominent role in shaping residents’ place attachment compared to purely physical infrastructure. Overall, this study emphasizes that enhancing rural environmental quality—particularly in its natural, aesthetic, and identity dimensions—can serve as an effective strategy for strengthening place attachment, increasing residential satisfaction, and promoting sustainable development in peri-urban rural settlements, and should be considered by planners and policymakers.

Abstract Background and Aim: Future research is the way to face and prepare for different situations of occurrence of an event in the future. Looking to the future and drawing the perspective of the crisis and challenges of water scarcity in West Azarbaijan province are among the challenges facing managers, planners and executive and managerial officials of the province. Considering the complexity and ambiguity of different future states, future research studies in strategic planning are necessary to prevent water crisis and create problems and conflicts. It seems; Because it has a wide range of possible futures in front of it.
Methods: The main goal of the research is future research and scenario writing of the main and key factors and challenges affecting the water crisis in West Azarbaijan province. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature, which is based on library and field documents (questionnaire). which has been classified, compiled and prepared according to the basic and existing studies in the field of water crisis in the two sectors of production-water supply and water supply and demand. In this research, GIS-MIC MAC-SENARIO WIZARD-EXCEL software were used. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data, the validity and reliability of which was confirmed. Also, the statistical population of the research is the experts, specialists and experts of the water domain of West Azarbaijan province and its statistical sample is 15 of the experts and experts of the said domain. Data were analyzed using MIC MAC software.
Findings and Conclusion: It was determined that nine indicators (the state of temperature in the province, the state of management of runoff and surface water in the province, the state of preservation of wetlands, reservoirs and lakes in the province, the state of harvesting and exploitation of water from wells with Permits and permits in the province, the amount of water entering the province from neighboring countries, the status of entitlement to border waters of the province through water diplomacy, The degree of dependence of the neighboring provinces on the production products of the province, especially agriculture, the status of training and extension programs among the farmers of the province, the rate of land use change to irrigated agriculture in the province) are effective. Also, in the analysis of possible situations facing the province, two scenarios were obtained as strong scenarios with high compatibility.

Abstract Background and Objective: Land use and land cover (LULC) are among the most critical indicators of human-environment interaction, reflecting how societies exploit and transform the natural landscape. Understanding temporal changes in land use is essential for sustainable planning, environmental management, and agricultural policy development. This study aims to detect and analyze land use changes in Miandoab County over the period 2013 to 2024 using remote sensing techniques.
Methodology: Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS satellite images for the years 2013 and 2024 were used as the primary data source. After applying radiometric and geometric preprocessing, the images were classified using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) algorithm, which relies on the statistical distribution of spectral data and assigns each pixel to the most probable class. Eight land use categories were defined: built-up areas, soil, roads, farmlands, orchards, water bodies, salt flats, and saline soils. The classification accuracy was assessed using overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient.
Results and Findings: The classification results revealed significant land use changes over the 11-year period. Farmlands increased from 3,183 ha in 2013 to 4,963 ha in 2024, indicating a major shift toward agricultural expansion. Conversely, orchards and soil areas showed marked decreases, likely due to water scarcity and urban encroachment. Built-up areas expanded to 1,849 ha, reflecting urban development. The classification achieved high accuracy levels (94.07% in 2013 and 94% in 2024), validating the reliability of the MLC approach. The study demonstrates that remote sensing and supervised classification are effective tools for land use monitoring. The observed trends highlight the need for integrated land management strategies to balance development with environmental sustainability in Miandoab.

Abstract Introduction: The population and its characteristics are considered one of the most important components for achieving development. In fact, neglecting demographic indicators and characteristics in regional and national policymaking and planning can result in a mismatch between the potential of the region and its population, leading to numerous problems in achieving balanced development at the national level. Methodology:  Consequently, the aim of the present research is to formulate drivers and scenarios impacting demographic policies in West Azarbaijan Province with a spatial planning approach. The data collection method in this study is both documentary and field-based. Finally, for data analysis, the future studies software MicMac and Scenario Wizard have been utilized.
Results and Discussion: The results indicate that among the three present scenarios, the first scenario, which encompasses all optimistic scenarios, is recognized as the most desirable scenario, while the third scenario, which includes all pessimistic scenarios, is regarded as the least desirable. The second scenario comprises those scenarios that are more intermediate; in other words, they cannot be classified as strong or weak scenarios. The distinguishing factor among them is the difference in the degree of static and critical conditions. This group encompasses all intermediate situations among the scenarios in terms of frequency. In general, the third scenario is identified as a critical scenario because it is completely opposite to the first scenario, containing ten critical conditions.

Abstract Kurdistan province in west of Iran, has a major border with Iraq, it can be considered as a strong potential for development of commercial activities, especially in border cities. in this regard, development and its crucial facilities in the border cities of Kurdistan can play an important a vital role in establishing relations with neighboring countries and can also accelerate the pace of national convergence. The aim of this study, is to investigate and analyze the development capabilities of cities in Kurdistan province with emphasis on national convergence. It the term of aims applied method and in the tern of gathering and interpreting the descriptive-analytical method is used. In the process of preparing and producing data, first the effective factors on the development of Kurdistan province with emphasis on national convergence indicators are identified, using Delphi method and 45 experts’ ideas. In order to test the hypothesis, structural modeling and path analysis are utilized. The results showed that there is an effective relationship between the occurrence of development and its effect on national convergence with 0.48 coefficient path, which means that the components and criteria of development explain 0.48% of the success of the development strategy. On the other hand, there is a strong casual relationship between human development indicators (with 0.91 coefficient of path) and the occurrence of development, which means human development indicators determine development, but there is is no causal relationship between occurrence of political development factors (with a path coefficient) and success of the development in the cities of Kurdistan province. and it means that the factors of political development, due to the effect that it has on the occurrence of the development of the cities of Kurdistan province, can be a determining factor in the success of the development of the cities of Kurdistan province. In general, it can be said that the development of the cities affects the criteria of national convergence.

Abstract Natural hazards are threatening accidents that cause a lot of human and financial losses. These dangers are not limited to the time of occurrence, but because of the social consequences that will affect the people of the region for years to come. In such cases where the effects of natural hazards are manifested in human life, such hazards are referred to as natural disasters and the role of these hazards in urban planning is important. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of natural hazards and crisis management in land management in Kermanshah province. The present research is a combination of "descriptive-analytical" methods in terms of applied purpose and according to the nature of the subject and the studied components, the approach governing the research process. Data collection and data has been done in two forms of "documentation and survey" and to analyze and weigh data from the FAHP model and GIS ARC software (GIS) to investigate the distribution of natural hazards.Findings from the study show that in terms of natural hazards (earthquake, flood, drought, landslide), %54 of the province in low and very low risk,%21in moderate risk and finally8.36 The percentage is in a very high risk situation.The results indicate that in terms of natural hazards (earthquake, flood, drought, landslide) Kermanshah province is in a moderate situation.