Spatial Analysis and Assessment of Resilience of Zabol City Against Natural Hazards with Emphasis on Floods

Document Type : Origional Article

Authors

1 PhD Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Zah.C., Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Zah.C., Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Zah.C., Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran

Abstract
In recent years, the increase in the frequency and severity of floods caused by climate change and excessive urban development has created serious challenges for human societies and the environment. Meanwhile, flood resilience assessment has been proposed as a fundamental solution to reduce losses and increase the ability of natural and human systems to cope with this phenomenon. Geographic Information System (GIS) with its unique analytical and visualization capabilities is an efficient tool for identifying high-risk areas, analyzing effective factors, and planning flood management solutions. This study has comprehensively investigated the factors affecting flooding in Zabol County using modern spatial analysis methods. By using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and combining 9 key indicators including topography, slope, precipitation, slope direction, watercourse density, geology, land use, topographic wetness index (TWI), and distance from the watercourse, an accurate map of flood risk zoning in the region was prepared. The results showed that topography (importance 0.77) and precipitation (importance 0.68) indicators have the greatest impact on flood occurrence. The presented model has high accuracy with a kappa coefficient of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.15. The analyses show that about 45% of the study area is in the high-risk and very high-risk categories, mainly located in the southern low-lying areas with gentle slopes and close to waterways. This study highlights the importance of integrated flood management approaches with an emphasis on natural and human factors in arid regions.

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 May 2026

  • Receive Date 27 January 2025
  • Revise Date 08 April 2025
  • Accept Date 20 May 2025
  • First Publish Date 24 May 2025
  • Publish Date 22 May 2026