Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Land Use Changes in Recent Decades and Their Impact on the Socio-Economic Structure of Rural Areas in Shush

Document Type : Article extracted from thesis

Authors

1 Phdstudent in Geography and Rural Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, of Geography and Rural Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract
Land use changes represent one of the fundamental challenges in rural areas, exerting profound impacts on socio-economic structures and the environment. Shush County, as one of the most important agricultural hubs in Khuzestan Province, has witnessed significant transformations in land use patterns in recent decades. These changes primarily stem from industrial agricultural development, climate change, and economic shifts, which have had extensive consequences on settlement systems and rural livelihoods. The current study was conducted to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze these transformations and examine their effects on rural communities. This research investigates land use changes and their impacts on rural settlements in Shush County during the period from 1990 to 2023. The findings reveal that rain-fed agricultural areas in Chenaneh, Seyed Abbas, and Sorkheh districts have increased to 212.36, 188.47, and 182.34 square kilometers respectively, while rangelands have experienced a 35% decline. Spatial analyses (Moran's I=0.68) confirm a clustered pattern of changes in the western part of the county. Questionnaire data (n=200) indicate that 86% of respondents consider water scarcity as the primary factor driving changes in cropping patterns. CA-Markov modeling, with 91.2% accuracy, predicts an additional 18.1% reduction in dense vegetation by 2036. The results demonstrate that the development of industrial crops such as sugarcane has coincided with 36.3% urban expansion, while remote villages (>5km from rivers) have experienced a 42% population decline. This study confirms the necessity for location-specific strategies, including the development of drought-resistant crops in the western regions and the enhancement of orchards in the eastern parts of the county.

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 20 February 2026

  • Receive Date 11 April 2025
  • Revise Date 15 June 2025
  • Accept Date 26 July 2025
  • First Publish Date 26 July 2025
  • Publish Date 20 February 2026