Foresight of the Cooperative Sector in Ardabil Province by 2031 and presentation of regional development strategies

Farhang, Amir Ali

Foresight of the Cooperative Sector in Ardabil Province by 2031 and presentation of regional development strategies

Document Type : Extract article from research project

Author

Amir Ali Farhang

Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Background and Objective: Rapid technological developments (such as artificial intelligence, automation, and the digital economy), labor market fluctuations, demographic changes, and increasing societal expectations in the field of welfare require a review of new missions and mechanisms. This study aimed to conduct foresight analysis of the cooperative sector in Ardabil Province by 2031 and propose development strategies.
Methodology: The research was descriptive-inferential and foresight-oriented, employing a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. The statistical population consisted of 58 experts, government and non-government officials, cooperative members, and researchers in the cooperative sector, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected via Likert-scale questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and documentary studies. Various methods were used for data analysis: PESTEL analysis to identify macro-environmental factors, MICMAC method to examine interrelationships among key variables, and Shell scenario planning to develop future scenarios. Additionally, correlation analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test, SWOT analysis, TF-IDF technique, and K-Means clustering were applied for quantitative and qualitative data analysis.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that economic factors, such as inflation rates, and political factors, such as political stability, were the most influential. Technology was identified as a key driver, and scenarios of economic stagnation and water scarcity threats were deemed the most likely futures. The absence of significant differences among respondent groups facilitated unified policymaking. Ultimately, strategies such as leveraging strengths to capitalize on opportunities, focusing on key factors, preparing for likely scenarios, and promoting technological development were proposed. These findings can assist policymakers and cooperative managers in formulating sustainable development strategies. While numerous studies on foresight and related topics have been conducted domestically and internationally, no research has been observed specifically on the foresight of the cooperative sector in Ardabil Province.

Keywords

Foresight

Cooperative Sector

PESTEL Analysis

Scenario Planning

Ardabil

Subjects

Urban & Regional Economic

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