Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)
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Quantitative Analysis of Land-Use Change and Urban Development Patterns Using Spatial Matrices (Case Study: District 4, Tabriz Metropolitan Area)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Origional Article

Authors

Ferydon Babaei Aghdam 1
Alireza Omidpour 2
Para Karimzadeh 3

1 Associate Professor Department of Regional and Urban planning, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Planning, University of Tabriz, Iran

2 MSc student in Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

3 MSc Student in Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

Abstract
Abstract: In recent decades, urban areas have experienced significant spatial and physical transformations, largely driven by rapid horizontal expansion and land-use changes. Tabriz, as one of Iran’s metropolitan cities, has particularly witnessed unbalanced and scattered urban growth in District 4, resulting in various environmental and social consequences. This study aims to evaluate the spatial–physical expansion trends of District 4 of Tabriz. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature. Considering the unbalanced urban growth and increasing pressure on natural resources and agricultural lands, the study examines urban development patterns and proposes sustainable approaches for guiding and managing future physical growth.
Methodology: The methodological framework is grounded in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial matrix analysis. Core datasets—including land-use maps, road networks, and key indicators affecting urban development—were collected and processed in ArcGIS. The analytical indicators consisted of building density, horizontal expansion, land-use change, accessibility to urban services, slope, distance from major roads, and hazard zoning. These indicators were rasterized, normalized, and integrated using overlay and hierarchical analytical methods to generate development suitability maps, enabling a multidimensional evaluation of the district’s spatial potential and constraints.
Findings and Conclusion: Results indicate that District 4 has undergone dispersed and unbalanced expansion over the past two decades, with an annual growth rate of roughly 2.5 percent. The prevailing pattern is low-density horizontal sprawl, placing pressure on natural resources and undermining spatial cohesion. Building density is concentrated in central areas and along transportation corridors, whereas peripheral and newly developed zones display low density and limited access to services. Slope and hazard analyses show that while some areas possess high development suitability, others are at environmental risk. Overall, findings highlight the significant role of GIS and spatial indicators in monitoring and guiding urban growth. Redirecting development toward higher density, enhancing spatial equity in service accessibility, considering natural land capacity, and controlling horizontal expansion are recommended as key strategies for promoting sustainable development in the district.

Keywords

Urban Development
Geographic Information System (GIS)
Urban Sprawl
Spatial Matrices
Development Suitability
District 4 Tabriz

Subjects

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Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 03 February 2026

  • Receive Date 14 November 2025
  • Revise Date 02 January 2026
  • Accept Date 02 February 2026
  • First Publish Date 03 February 2026
  • Publish Date 03 February 2026

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