Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)
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Futures Study of Social Housing Development in Tabriz Metropolis: Identification of Key Drivers and Scenario Analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Origional Article

Authors

Mohammad Reza Pourmohammadi 1
Hassan Mahmoudzadeh 2
Mehri Saadatjuye Asr 1

1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

2 Professor, Urban and Regional Planning Department, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences ,University of Tabriz

Abstract
Introduction
Rapid urbanization, migration, and a 30–50% rise in housing prices against only 10–15% income growth have made social housing access a global crisis. Over 1.6 billion people lack adequate housing (UN-Habitat, 2022). In Tabriz, a major Iranian metropolis, low-income groups face affordability issues, land scarcity, inequality, and speculation. Previous research highlights physical-spatial variables as most influential, yet few studies address future scenarios. This study identifies key drivers and analyzes scenarios for social housing development in Tabriz.
Methods
This applied, mixed-method research used documentary analysis and field data (50 expert interviews, 150 resident surveys). Structural analysis (MIC-MAC) and scenario planning (Scenario Wizard, Cross-Impact Balance) were employed to categorize factors and generate consistent scenarios.

Results
Social housing in Tabriz depends on a “strategic triangle”: innovative provision models, full financial sustainability, and intelligent quality monitoring. All 15 plausible scenarios require these three pillars. Physical-topographical limitations and poor infrastructure access remain structural barriers. Of 15 scenarios, only two are desirable, twelve are static, and one is critical. The most probable scenario (No. 1, TIS=65) features the three prerequisites but static government investment and persistent physical/infrastructural challenges.
Conclusion
Both hypotheses are conditionally confirmed: increased government investment and transparency are necessary but insufficient without financial sustainability and intelligent monitoring. Green and innovative construction technologies can reduce costs if widely adopted. Policymakers must recognize that neglecting any of the three pillars or ignoring physical constraints guarantees failure. Tabriz’s social housing future is neither a leap nor collapse but a fragile, gradual movement along an intermediate path.

Keywords

آینده ‌نگاری
مسکن اجتماعی
کلانشهر تبریز
پیشران‌های کلیدی
تحلیل سناریوها
نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد
Subjects
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Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 11 June 2026

  • Receive Date 19 March 2026
  • Revise Date 10 April 2026
  • Accept Date 09 June 2026
  • First Publish Date 11 June 2026
  • Publish Date 11 June 2026

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