Investigation and Synoptic Analysis of Heat Waves using some GCM Models in the Ardabil Plain

Imanzadeh Ajirlou, Zahra; Salahi, Bromand

Investigation and Synoptic Analysis of Heat Waves using some GCM Models in the Ardabil Plain

Document Type : Article extracted from thesis

Authors

Zahra Imanzadeh Ajirlou ¹ ^¶

Bromand Salahi ²

¹ Ph.D. Student of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

² Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

Abstract

Background and Objective: Heat waves are among the most important climatic disasters that bring devastating environmental consequences every year. Heat waves are a very important climatic event that is likely to occur with greater frequency and intensity in the future. Therefore, in order to manage and reduce the effects of heat waves on a regional scale, it is necessary to analyze and predict changes related to heat waves. The aim of this paper is to identify, classify, and synoptically analyze heat waves and its long-term forecast in the Ardabil Plain.
Methodology: First, the 20-year long-term statistics of heat waves from 1995 to 2014 at the Ardabil synoptic station were prepared, and heat wave synoptic maps were extracted and analyzed using the Grads software. Using the LARS-WG model, possible heat waves were predicted in the next 38 years (2015-2050).The studies identified 25 heat waves during the 20-year period. To evaluate the model performance, observational and simulated data were compared in the base period (1995-2014).
Results and Findings: The results also showed that the usual time for the onset of heat waves is in early August. The results showed that the dominant patterns during the occurrence of heat waves include a zonal high pressure accompanied by a westerly wind wave ridge and a low pressure prevailing over the sea surface and the Pakistan and Saudi low pressure over the study area. The results also showed that the average annual maximum temperature of Ardabil during the statistical period from 2015 to 2050 will be about 13.68 degrees Celsius. According to the HadCM3 model, under the A1B scenario, the temperature is about 16.46, according to the IPCM4 model, under the B1 scenario, the temperature is about 16.54, and according to HADGEM, under the A2 scenario, the temperature is 16.55 degrees Celsius, with a difference of 0.01.The output of the aforementioned models showed that the temperature of the Ardabil plain will increase by an average of about 3 degrees Celsius by 2050.

Keywords

GCMs

LARS-WG Model

Maximum Temperatures

Synoptic Analysis

Ardabil Plain

Subjects

Physical geogeaphy

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