Background and Objective: The Urmia Plain, as one of the most sensitive ecosystems in western Iran, has undergone extensive land use transformations in recent decades under the pressure of anthropogenic activities and environmental changes. These changes can have irreversible consequences for food security, local livelihoods, and environmental health. This study aimed to identify and quantitatively analyze the trends of land use and land cover (LULC) change in the Urmia Plain over a 36-year period (1984-2020) using Landsat satellite imagery.
Methodology: This study utilized Landsat 5 (TM), Landsat 7 (ETM+), and Landsat 8 (OLI) satellite images from 1984, 2000, and 2020. After performing necessary preprocessing steps, supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) algorithm was implemented in ENVI software. Land use maps were extracted for six main classes (agriculture and orchard, rangeland, built-up, barren land, water bodies, and salt marshes), and their accuracy was assessed using an error matrix and the metrics of overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient.
Results and Findings: The results indicated that over the study period, the extent of agriculture and orchard lands (increasing from 22% to 26%) and built-up areas increased, while water bodies (33%) and rangelands (22%) experienced a concerning declining trend. Concurrently, the area of barren lands and salt marshes also increased. A comparison of the two time periods revealed that the degradation process has accelerated, particularly after the year 2000, leading to the establishment of a detrimental degradation cycle, which underscores the urgent need for revising management strategies.