Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)
Quarterly

Ten Year Analysis of Land Use Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin and Their Relationship with Water Level Variations (Using Landsat 8 and 9 Imagery)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Article extracted from thesis

Authors

Ali Mohammadi
Mojgan Zaeimdar
Mahsa Bakhsaie
Masoud Torabi Azad

Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Marine Science and Technology, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

Abstract
Over the past decades, the Urmia Lake basin has experienced extensive land use changes accompanied by a severe decline in water level. This situation highlights the necessity of scientifically analyzing land use dynamics and proposing management patterns compatible with environmental sustainability. The objective of this study is to investigate ten year land use changes in the Urmia Lake basin (2013–2023) using Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 imagery and to propose an optimal land use pattern aimed at reducing environmental hazards. For this purpose, satellite images were subjected to geometric and atmospheric corrections and subsequently classified into four main classes using the supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification algorithm. Classification accuracy was evaluated using an error matrix, overall accuracy, and the Kappa coefficient, yielding an accuracy greater than 90%. Subsequently, the spatial pattern and areal changes of each land use class during the study period were analyzed and compared with the trend of lake water level decline. The results indicate that the significant expansion of agricultural lands and human built areas coincides with a substantial reduction in water bodies. This simultaneity suggests that land use changes have played a significant role in intensifying the lake desiccation crisis. To derive an optimal land use pattern, relevant spatial layers were standardized and integrated within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Using the Site Selection function and a suitability threshold of ≥ 60%, a final proposed land use map was generated. According to this map, agricultural lands cover 563.51 km², water bodies occupy 345.29 km², human built areas account for 152.56 km², and other land uses encompass 17,939.05 km² of the study area. The findings emphasize that integrated water resource management, adjustment of cropping patterns, and continuous monitoring of land use changes are essential for achieving ecological sustainability and supporting the restoration of Urmia Lake.

Keywords

Land Use
Urmia Lake
Remote Sensing
Geographic Information System (GIS)
Spatio temporal Changes

Subjects

1)             Abd El-Kawy, O. R., Rød, J. K., Ismail, H. A., & Suliman, A. S. (2011). Land use and land cover change detection in the western Nile delta of Egypt using remote sensing data. Applied geography, 31(2), 483-494.
2)             AghaKouchak, A., Feldman, D., Hoerling, M., Huxman, T., & Lund, J. (2015). Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought. Nature, 524, 409–411.
3)             Aguilera, F., Valenzuela, L. M., & Botequilha-Leitão, A. (2011). Landscape metrics in the analysis of urban land use patterns: A case study in a Spanish metropolitan area. Landscape and Urban Planning, 99(3-4), 226-238.
4)             Aguilos, M., Sun, G., Noormets, A., Domec, J. C., McNulty, S., Gavazzi, M., ... & King, J. (2021). Effects of land-use change and drought on decadal evapotranspiration and water balance of natural and managed forested wetlands along the southeastern US lower coastal plain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 303, 108-381.
5)             Akber, M. A., Khan, M. W. R., Islam, M. A., Rahman, M. M., & Rahman, M. R. (2018). Impact of land use change on ecosystem services of southwest coastal Bangladesh. Journal of land use science, 13(3), 238-250.
6)             Arulbalaji, P., & Gurugnanam, B. (2014). Geospatial science for 16 years of variation in land use/land cover practice assessment around Salem District, South India. Journal of Geosciences and Geomatics, 2(1), 17-20.
7)             Azadkhani,P. , Imanfard,A. and Soltani,A. (2020). Investigating the Motivational Factors of Health Tourism in Lake Urmia. Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS), 1(1), 40-54. https://www.srds.ir/article_122913.html?lang=en 
8)             Dahesht, L. E., Mustafayev, Q., Mohebbi, F., & Ahmadi, R. (2013). Relationship between Artemia population dynamics and chlorophyll a fluctuations in Urmia Lake (Iran). Brazilian Journal of Aquatic Science and Technology, 17(2), 1-6.
9)             Eimanifar, A., & Mohebbi, F. (2007). Urmia Lake (northwest Iran): A brief review. Saline Systems, 3(5).
10)         Golian, S., Javadian, M., & Behrangi, A. (2015). On the causes of the shrinking of Lake Urmia. International Journal of Climatology, 35(14), 4426–4437.
11)         Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M., & Hassanzadeh, Y. (2012). Determining the main factors in declining the Urmia Lake level by using system dynamics modeling. Water Resources Management, 26, 129–145.
12)         Kumar, K. S., Kumari, K. P., & Bhaskar, P. U. (2016, March). Application of Markov Chain & Cellular Automata based model for prediction of Urban transitions. In 2016 International Conference on Electrical, Electronics, and Optimization Techniques (ICEEOT) (pp. 4007-4012). IEEE.
13)         Lee, S. D., & Miller-Rushing, A. J. (2014). Degradation, urbanization, and restoration: A review of the challenges and future of conservation on the Korean Peninsula. Biological Conservation, 176, 262-276
14)         Marjani, A., & Jamali, M. (2014). Role of exchange flow in salt water balance of Urmia Lake. Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans, 65, 1-16.
15)         Mohammadiyeghani, B. , Valaei, M. and Charaghi, M. (2013). The Effects of Water level Decline on Agriculture of Rural areas around Urumia Lake. Case Study:Northern Marhamatabad County ,Miyandoab Township. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 2(1), 55-72.
16)         Mondejar, J. P., & Tongco, A. F. (2019). Near infrared band of Landsat 8 as water index: a case study around Cordova and Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu, Philippines. Sustainable Environment Research, 29(1), 1-15.
17)         Nazmfar H, Shirzad M. (2020). Monitoring land use changes in Lake Urmia and its surroundings using various methods of statistical training theory. MJSP; 24 (3) :201-229 http://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-42285-fa.html
18)         Nikjoo, B. , Abdeshahi, A. and Yazdanpanah, M. (2017). Prioritizing the economic, social and environmental consequences on rural areas of Malekan township of the drying of lake Urumia. Environmental Sciences, 15(1), 27-44.
19)         Rahimi Eyblou,A. M. , Mousavi,M. N. and Soltani,N. (2025). Compilation of effective scenarios on the transition from water crisis in West Azarbaijan province with Spatial Planning Approach. Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS), 6(1), 50-67.   
20)         Roy, D. P., Li, J., Zhang, H. K., & Yan, L. (2022). Landsat‑8 and Landsat‑9 Collection 2 surface reflectance and surface temperature products. Remote Sensing of Environment, 280.
Sahin, G., Cabuk, S. N., & Cetin, M. (2022). The change detection in coastal settlements using image processing techniques: a case study of Korfez. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(10), 15172-15187.
21)         Shadkam, S., Ludwig, F., van Oel, P., Kirmitcioglu, C., & Kabat, P. (2016). Impacts of climate change and water resources development on the declining inflow into Iran’s Urmia Lake. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42(5), 942–952.
22)         You, H., Tang, X., Deng, W., Song, H., Wang, Y., & Chen, J. (2022). A study on the difference of LULC classification results based on Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 data. Sustainability, 14(21), 13730.
23)         Yudistira, R., Meha, A. I., & Prasetyo, S. Y. J. (2019). Perubahan konversi lahan menggunakan NDVI, EVI, SAVI dan PCA pada Citra Landsat 8 (studi kasus: Kota Salatiga). Indonesian Journal of Computing and Modeling, 2(1), 25-30.
24)         Zarrineh, N., & Abad, M. A. N. (2014). Integrated water resources management in Iran: Environmental, socio-economic and political review of drought in Lake Urmia. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 6(1), 40-48.
Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 29 April 2026

  • Receive Date 20 February 2026
  • Revise Date 09 April 2026
  • Accept Date 27 April 2026
  • First Publish Date 29 April 2026
  • Publish Date 29 April 2026

Home

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Contact Us