Analysis of the Influential Drivers of the Future of Beach sports Tourism by the Horizon of 2041 (Case Study: Ahvaz City)

Document Type : Origional Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Sport Management, Faculty of Sport Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

2 Graduated from the Master of Sports Management, Faculty of Sports Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

Abstract
Background and Objective: The development of Beach sports tourism, as one of the modern drivers of urban economy, has always faced planning challenges in metropolitan areas. In recent decades, under the influence of severe economic fluctuations and demographic changes, traditional models of utilizing coastal zones in Iranian metropolises have become inefficient, and the necessity of adopting futuristic approaches to transition from one-dimensional strategies is felt more than ever. In this regard, the present study aims to identify and analyze the cross-impacts of key drivers influencing the future of Beach sports tourism in Ahvaz city by the horizon of 2041.
Methodology: The current research is qualitative in nature (future studies) and employs a descriptive-analytical methodology. In the first phase, using library studies and the expert Delphi technique (including 50 experts in the fields of tourism and sport management), 30 primary variables were identified across economic, physical, managerial, and social dimensions. Subsequently, using the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) method and MICMAC software, the level of influence and dependence of these drivers on each other were measured and analyzed to map the future prospect of sports tourism along the Karun River.
Results and Findings: The findings indicate that environmental and economic drivers, acting as the driving engines of the system, possess the power to direct other components, and their strategic dominance over the coastal dynamics of the Karun River in the 2041 horizon is certain. Meanwhile, dual-aspect variables such as identity-building and hosting events play a significant interactive role in connecting infrastructure with macro-objectives. Analyses suggest that the success of this vision does not rely on one-dimensional interventions, but rather requires the establishment of an integrated management system that, by focusing on key drivers and reforming physical structures, provides a sustainable platform for improving infrastructure and enhancing social security. Ultimately, the research emphasizes that policymaking to establish Ahvaz as a sports tourism destination must move beyond siloed approaches and focus on the intelligent reinforcement of environmental and economic drivers, so that the necessary balance and resilience in the Karun coastal zones can be achieved through cascading effects.

Keywords

Subjects

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 24 May 2026

  • Receive Date 21 February 2026
  • Revise Date 20 April 2026
  • Accept Date 23 May 2026
  • First Publish Date 24 May 2026
  • Publish Date 24 May 2026