تحلیل پیشران‌های اثرگذار بر آینده گردشگری ورزش‌های ساحلی در افق ۱۴۲۰ (مطالعه موردی: شهر اهواز)

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار،گروه مدیریت ورزشی،دانشکده علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه شهیدچمران اهواز،اهواز، ایران.

2 دانش‌آموختة کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت ورزشی، دانشکده علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: توسعه گردشگری ورزشی ساحلی به عنوان یکی از پیشران‌های نوین در اقتصاد شهری، همواره با چالش‌های برنامه‌ریزی در کلان‌شهرهای ساحلی مواجه بوده است. در دهه‌های اخیر، تحت تأثیر نوسانات شدید اقتصادی و تغییرات دموگرافیک، الگوهای سنتی بهره‌برداری از پهنه‌های ساحلی در کلان‌شهرهای ایران با ناکارآمدی مواجه شده و ضرورت اتخاذ رویکردهای آینده‌پژوهانه برای گذار از رویکردهای تک‌بعدی بیش از پیش احساس می‌شود. در همین راستا، هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر آینده گردشگری ورزشی ساحلی در شهر اهواز تا افق ۱۴۲۰ است.
متدلوژی: پژوهش حاضر از نظر ماهیت، در زمره پژوهش‌های آینده‌پژوهی و از نظر روش‌شناسی، مبتنی بر روش‌های توصیفی-تحلیلی است. در گام نخست، با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و تکنیک دلفی نخبگان (شامل ۵۰ کارشناس حوزه گردشگری و مدیریت ورزشی)، ۳0 متغیر اولیه در ابعاد اقتصادی، کالبدی، مدیریتی و اجتماعی شناسایی شدند. سپس با استفاده از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و نرم‌افزار MICMAC، میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری این پیشران‌ها بر یکدیگر مورد سنجش و تحلیل قرار گرفت تا چشم‌انداز آینده گردشگری ورزشی در حاشیه رودخانه کارون ترسیم گردد.
یافته‌ها و نتایج: یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که پیشران‌های زیست‌محیطی و اقتصادی، به‌عنوان موتورهای محرک سیستم، قدرت جهت‌دهی به سایر مؤلفه‌ها را دارند و سلطه راهبردی آن‌ها بر پویایی‌های ساحلی کارون در افق ۱۴۲۰ قطعی است. در این میان، متغیرهای دووجهی نظیر هویت‌بخشی و برگزاری رویدادها، نقش تعاملی مهمی در پیوند میان زیرساخت‌ها و اهداف کلان ایفا می‌کنند. تحلیل‌ها حاکی از آن است که موفقیت این چشم‌انداز، نه در گرو مداخلات تک‌بعدی، بلکه نیازمند استقرار یک نظام مدیریتی یکپارچه است که با تمرکز بر پیشران‌های کلیدی و اصلاح ساختارهای کالبدی، بستری پایدار برای بهبود زیرساخت‌ها و ارتقای امنیت اجتماعی فراهم آورد. در نهایت، نتایج پژوهش تأکید می‌کند که سیاست‌گذاری برای دستیابی به اهوازِ مقصدِ گردشگری ورزشی، باید با عبور از رویکردهای جزیره‌ای، بر تقویت هوشمندانه پیشران‌های زیست‌محیطی و اقتصادی متمرکز گردد تا از طریق اثرات زنجیره‌ای، تعادل و تاب‌آوری لازم در پهنه‌های ساحلی کارون محقق شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of the Influential Drivers of the Future of Beach sports Tourism by the Horizon of 2041 (Case Study: Ahvaz City)

نویسندگان English

Seyed Hosein Marashian 1
Ali Lotf Alizadeh 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Sport Management, Faculty of Sport Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
2 Graduated from the Master of Sports Management, Faculty of Sports Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده English

Background and Objective: The development of Beach sports tourism, as one of the modern drivers of urban economy, has always faced planning challenges in metropolitan areas. In recent decades, under the influence of severe economic fluctuations and demographic changes, traditional models of utilizing coastal zones in Iranian metropolises have become inefficient, and the necessity of adopting futuristic approaches to transition from one-dimensional strategies is felt more than ever. In this regard, the present study aims to identify and analyze the cross-impacts of key drivers influencing the future of Beach sports tourism in Ahvaz city by the horizon of 2041.
Methodology: The current research is qualitative in nature (future studies) and employs a descriptive-analytical methodology. In the first phase, using library studies and the expert Delphi technique (including 50 experts in the fields of tourism and sport management), 30 primary variables were identified across economic, physical, managerial, and social dimensions. Subsequently, using the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) method and MICMAC software, the level of influence and dependence of these drivers on each other were measured and analyzed to map the future prospect of sports tourism along the Karun River.
Results and Findings: The findings indicate that environmental and economic drivers, acting as the driving engines of the system, possess the power to direct other components, and their strategic dominance over the coastal dynamics of the Karun River in the 2041 horizon is certain. Meanwhile, dual-aspect variables such as identity-building and hosting events play a significant interactive role in connecting infrastructure with macro-objectives. Analyses suggest that the success of this vision does not rely on one-dimensional interventions, but rather requires the establishment of an integrated management system that, by focusing on key drivers and reforming physical structures, provides a sustainable platform for improving infrastructure and enhancing social security. Ultimately, the research emphasizes that policymaking to establish Ahvaz as a sports tourism destination must move beyond siloed approaches and focus on the intelligent reinforcement of environmental and economic drivers, so that the necessary balance and resilience in the Karun coastal zones can be achieved through cascading effects.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

کلیدواژه ها: گردشگری
ورزش‌های ساحلی
تحلیل اثرات متقاطع
MICMAC
شهر اهواز
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