23.تاثیر رانت منابع طبیعی، ریسک ژئوپلیتیک و عدم قطعیت سیاست های اقتصادی بر رشد سبز در کشور عراق

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

2 دانشیار،گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: رانت منابع طبیعی، می‌تواند به عنوان یک عامل دوگانه عمل کند؛ از یک سو، تأمین مالی برای پروژه‌های سبز را فراهم می‌آورد و از سوی دیگر، ممکن است به وابستگی به صنایع آلاینده و کاهش انگیزه برای سرمایه‌گذاری در فناوری‌های پایدار منجر شود. ریسک ژئوپلیتیک در کشورهای غنی از منابع طبیعی، به ویژه در مناطق ناپایدار، می‌تواند به عدم قطعیت در سرمایه‌گذاری‌ها و کاهش تمایل به توسعه پروژه‌های اقتصادی سبز منجر شود، که این امر به تضعیف رشد پایدار کمک می‌کند. عدم قطعیت در سیاست‌های اقتصادی، به ویژه در زمینه قوانین زیست‌محیطی و مالیات، می‌تواند به کاهش اعتماد سرمایه‌گذاران و تأخیر در اجرای ابتکارات سبز منجر شود و در نتیجه، رشد اقتصادی پایدار را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد.
روش شناسی: در این پژوهش، به بررسی اثرات رانت منابع طبیعی، ریسک ژئوپلتیک و عدم قطعیت‌های اقتصادی و متغیرهای کنترلی دیگر چون توسعه مالی، تجارت خارجی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، تشکیل سرمایه ثابت بر رشد اقتصادی سبز در کشور عراق با استفاده از الگوی خودتوضیحی با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) و داده‌های فصلی طی دوره زمانی 2022-1995، پرداخته می‌شود.
یافته‌ها و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل، نشان می‌دهند که رانت منابع طبیعی، ریسک ژئوپلتیک و عدم قطعیت سیاست‌های اقتصادی، اثر منفی و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی سبز در این کشور دارند. همچنین، توسعه مالی، تجارت خارجی، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تشکیل سرمایه ثابت، اثر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی سبز در کشور عراق دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The impact of natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and economic policy uncertainty on green growth in Iraq Country

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Musa Abdullah 1
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj 2
Mohammad Hassanzadeh 3
1 MSc student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
3 Professor، Department of Economics ، Faculty of Social Sciences، University of Mohaghegh Ardabili، Ardabil ،Iran
چکیده English

Background and Objective: Natural resource rents can act as a dual factor; on the one hand, they provide financing for green projects, and on the other hand, they may lead to dependence on polluting industries and reduce incentives to invest in sustainable technologies. Geopolitical risk in resource-rich countries, especially in unstable regions, can lead to uncertainty in investments and a decrease in the willingness to develop green economic projects, which contributes to the weakening of sustainable growth. Uncertainty in economic policies, especially in the field of environmental regulations and taxation, can lead to reduced investor confidence and delays in the implementation of green initiatives, thus affecting sustainable economic growth.
Methodology: This study examines the effects of natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and economic uncertainties, and other control variables such as financial development, foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and fixed capital formation on green economic growth in Iraq using an auto-explanatory model with wide lags (ARDL) and seasonal data over the period 1995-2022.
Results and Findings: The results of the model estimation show that natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and economic policy uncertainty have a negative and significant effect on green economic growth in this have coutry. Also, financial development, foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and fixed capital formation have a positive and significant effect on green economic growth in Iraq country.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Natural resource rents
geopolitical risk
economic policy uncertainty
green growth
Iraq
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  • تاریخ دریافت 10 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 09 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 24 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 24 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 آذر 1404