Background and Objective: Primary education, as the most fundamental level of the educational system, plays a pivotal role in shaping human capital and enhancing the Human Development Index (HDI). Despite its critical importance, few comparative studies have systematically examined the impact of educational components at this level across different institutional and economic contexts. Accordingly, this study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the role of primary education in promoting HDI among selected countries of the MENA region (with particular emphasis on Iraq) and Scandinavian countries over the period 2000–2024.
Methodology: This research employs a panel data approach and utilizes EViews software to estimate the effects of key variables on HDI. The explanatory variables include the Good Governance Index, the Economic Misery Index, per capita government expenditure per primary school student, primary education income payments and receipts, primary school completion rate, and the number of primary school students.
Results and Findings: The empirical results indicate that all primary education-related variables, except for the Economic Misery Index in the MENA group, exert a positive and statistically significant impact on HDI in both country groups. Notably, the magnitude of the effects of educational expenditure and coverage variables in MENA countries is several times larger than in Scandinavia, suggesting a substantial potential for developmental leaps through targeted educational investments. Conversely, good governance exerts a very strong effect in Scandinavia (coefficient: 0.93) but a negligible one in MENA (coefficient: 0.02), underscoring the decisive role of institutional efficiency in enhancing the productivity of educational investments. Furthermore, the primary school completion rate, with remarkably similar coefficients across both regions (0.116 in MENA and 0.101 in Scandinavia), emerges as the strongest and most consistent predictor of human development, reflecting the universal and transcultural relevance of this indicator. Overall, the research hypothesis—affirming the positive and significant effect of primary education on HDI improvement—is empirically supported.
Conclusion: Targeted and long-term investment in primary education, particularly through increasing completion rates and boosting government expenditure, proves to be a highly efficient and high-yield development strategy. The successful experience of Scandinavian countries in systematic investment in primary education, educational equity, and teacher empowerment offers a valuable model for structural reforms in MENA countries, especially Iraq.