تدوین سناریوهای استراتژیک به منظور ارتقاء تاب آوری بافت های فرسوده مرکزی شهر اهواز

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، واحد اسلامشهر، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم،دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، واحد اسلامشهر، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم،دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، واحد اسلامشهر، تهران، ایران.

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: بافت فرسوده بخش مرکزی شهر اهواز به دلیل آسیب‌پذیری بالا در زمینه­های مختلف کالبدی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی، محیط زیستی و نهادی-مدیریتی در برابر انواع شوک‌ها و تهدیدات (طبیعی مانند زلزله، سیل، آتش‌سوزی؛ اجتماعی-اقتصادی مانند رکود، تغییرات جمعیتی و فناورانه) به شدت آسیب‌پذیر است. در این راستا پرداختن به موضوع آینده‌پژوهی نقش مؤلفه‌های تاب‌آوری در بافت فرسوده مرکزی شهر اهواز، ضرورتی چندوجهی و حیاتی دارد. بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی سناریوهای اثرگذاری بر ارتقاء تاب‌آوری بافت فرسوده شهری انجام شده است.
روش شناسی: پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش توصیفی-تحلیلی است، روش گردآوری داده ها بصورت کتابخانه‌ای، اسنادی و مصاحبه‌ای (با 50 نفر از خبرگان) و با استفاده از تکنیک‌های آینده‌پژوهی و نرم‌افزارهای Micmac و Scenario wizard بهره گرفته شد.
یافته‌ها و نتایج: پژوهش حاضر پژوهش با هدف تعیین مسیرهای آینده تاب‌آوری بافت فرسوده اهواز، در ابتدا ۳۰ عامل اصلی را در پنج بُعد (زیست‌محیطی، اجتماعی، فیزیکی، اقتصادی و نهادی-سازمانی) شناسایی کرد. با به‌کارگیری نرم‌افزارهای MICMAC و Scenario Wizard، این عوامل پالایش شده و ۱۸ پیشران کلیدی برای تدوین سناریوها انتخاب شدند. تحلیل نهایی ۱۹ سناریوی ممکن، سه مسیر مجزا را ترسیم کرد: ۸ سناریوی خوش‌بینانه، ۷ سناریوی ایستا و ۴ سناریوی بدبینانه. مهم‌ترین نتایج رتبه‌بندی‌شده بر اساس امتیاز تأثیر متقابل (CIB Scoreحاکی از آن است که سناریوی قوی (مطلوب) با بالاترین امتیاز (۷۸۰)، متکی بر پیشران‌های حیاتی چون توانمندسازی محلی و حمایت مالی گسترده است. در مقابل، سناریوی نامطلوب (بحران) با امتیاز منفی شدید (۲۱۰-)، در اثر ضعف همین پیشران‌ها و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری رخ می‌دهد. نتیجه نهایی تأکید می‌کند که آینده تاب‌آوری منطقه به انتخاب‌های استراتژیک سیاست‌گذاران وابسته بوده و برای جلوگیری از رکود و اضمحلال، باید فوراً تقویت بُعد اجتماعی و اصلاح ساختارهای نهادی (مالی) را در اولویت قرار داد تا پتانسیل‌های موجود به پایداری جامع تبدیل گردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Developing strategic scenarios to enhance the resilience of dilapidated urban fabric (Case study: Central part of dilapidated fabric of Ahvaz city)

نویسندگان English

Fatemeh Yazdani Fard 1
Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad 2
Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari 3
Hamid Reza Jodaki 2
1 PhD Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch, Tehran, Iran.
2 .Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Background and Objective: With the intensification of climate crises, the ecological behavior of employees has become the driving force of organizational sustainability. This necessity is of strategic importance in the metropolis of Ahvaz, due to the acute environmental and industrial challenges. The realization of these behaviors requires more than formal requirements, the internalization of green culture and strengthening organizational commitment to institutionalize voluntary environmental actions in the context of this region. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to rank the factors affecting the ecological behavior of employees in Ahvaz with an emphasis on commitment and green culture.
Methodology: The present research is of an applied type and is descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology.In the first step, by systematically monitoring theoretical literature and international experiences, key indicators promoting green behaviors were extracted. In the operational phase, to analyze the network of internal relationships and determine the final weight of the criteria, the DANP hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach (combination of DEMETL and ANP) was used. Finally, using the opinions of the expert panel (consisting of 50 environmental management and human resources experts), the final ranking of the indicators was developed to present a native model that is consistent with the industrial ecosystem of Ahvaz.
Results and Findings: The results of the study showed that green organizational culture is the main foundation of ecological behavior in Ahvaz, and the indicators of "green learning" and "awareness of the micro-dust crisis" have the highest priority in the behavioral transformation of employees. Based on the Dematel and Supermatrix analysis, tangible symbols and managerial values ​​are considered as causal factors, the main drivers of the formation of emotional commitments and innovative (deflective) behaviors in the organization. Also; the findings indicate that organizational pride and recognition of the depth of the environmental disaster have a much greater impact on improving ecological performance than external rewards or mandatory laws. Finally, success in ranking the factors affecting the green behavior of Ahvaz employees does not depend on coercion, but on specialized climate training and institutionalizing identity links with the organization's environmental goals.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Environmental attitude
ecological behavior
green commitment
green culture
DANP model
Ahvaz
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  • تاریخ دریافت 14 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 30 شهریور 1404
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