سنجش اثرات گردشگری بر رشد اقتصادی و توسعه شهری (مطالعه موردی: استان های شمالغرب ایران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار،گروه هنر و معماری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: گردشگری در اقتصاد امروز به‌عنوان یکی از شاخص‌های مهم توسعه‌یافتگی و ابزاری مؤثر برای تحقق توسعه پایدار شناخته می‌شود. این صنعت با افزایش درآمد ملی، ایجاد اشتغال، جذب سرمایه‌گذاری داخلی و خارجی، توسعه منطقه‌ای و تأمین درآمدهای ارزی، نقش مهمی در رشد اقتصادی کشورها ایفا می‌کند. با این وجود، کشور ایران با وجود تاکید بر گسترش گردشگری در تمامی برنامه‌های توسعه و رهایی از اقتصاد تک محصولی متکی بر صادرات نفت، موفقیت قابل توجه، مملوس و محسوسی در این زمینه نداشته است. بدین جهت، در پژوهش حاضر، اثرات گردشگری بر توسعه شهری و رشد اقتصادی آنها در سه استان اردبیل، آذربایجان غربی و آذربایجان شرقی در بازه زمانی 1390-1402 مطالعه شده است تا با عنایت به پتانسیل های گردشگری این مناطق، مشخص گردد که آیا گردشگری در این مناطق توانسته است بر توسعه و رشد منطقه ای آنها تاثیرگذار باشد یا نه؟
روش‌شناسی: پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی بوده و برای گردآوری آمار و داده ها از روش کتابخانه‌ای استفاده شده ایت. بدین ترتیب با استفاده از سالنامه آماری استان های مورد مطالعه در بازه زمانی 1390-1402، داده های مورد نظر استخراج شده و مدل رگرسیونی با استفاده از روش رگرسیونی پانل دیتا، تخمین زده شده است
نتایج و یافته‌ها:
نتایج برآورد مدل نشان می دهدکه متغیر گردشگری بر رشد اقتصادی استان های مورد مطالعه تاثیر مثبت و معنادار دارد. بطوریکه با افزایش یک درصدی در تعداد گردشگران ورودی به استان، رشد اقتصادی آنها 11/0 درصد افزایش داشته است. بعبارت دیگر، با وجود پتانسیل های گردشگری موجود در این سه استان، به ویژه داشتن مناطق زیبای جنگلی و کوهستانی، ساختمان های تاریخی ، اگر چه تاثیر گردشگری بر رشد تولید در این سه استان مثبت بوده، اما مقدار این تاثیرکمتر از حد انتظار بوده است. همچنین ضریب مربوط به متغیرهای مربوط به سرمایه فیزیکی، سرمایه انسانی و نیروی کار بترتیب 26/0، 21/0 و 39/0 برآورد شده است. بعبارت دیگر، با ثابت ماندن سایر شرایط و با تغییر یک درصد در متغیر سرمایه فیزیکی، سرمایه انسانی و نیروی کار ، میزان سطح تولید بترتیب به اندازه 26/0، 21/0 و 39/0 درصد تغییر می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Assessing the Impacts of Tourism on Economic Growth and Urban Development: A Case Study of the Northwestern Provinces of Iran

نویسنده English

saman abizdeh
Assistant Professor, Department of Art and Architecture, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Background and Objective: In today's economy, tourism is recognized as one of the key indicators of development and an effective tool for achieving sustainable development. This industry plays a significant role in the economic growth of countries by increasing national income, creating employment, attracting domestic and foreign investment, fostering regional development, and generating foreign exchange earnings. Nevertheless, despite the emphasis on expanding tourism in all development plans and on moving away from a single-product economy reliant on oil exports, Iran has not achieved considerable, tangible, or noticeable success in this area. Therefore, the present study examines the effects of tourism on urban development and economic growth in three provinces—Ardabil, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan—over the period 2011–2023 (1390–1402 in the Persian calendar). The aim is to determine, considering the tourism potentials of these regions, whether tourism has been able to influence their regional development and growth.
Methodology: The present study is applied in terms of objective, and a library method was used to collect statistics and data. Accordingly, the required data were extracted using the statistical yearbooks of the studied provinces for the period 2011–2023, and a regression model was estimated using the panel data regression method.
Results and Findings: The estimation results of the model indicate that the tourism variable has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the studied provinces. Specifically, a one percent increase in the number of incoming tourists to a province leads to a 0.11 percent increase in its economic growth. In other words, despite the existing tourism potentials in these three provinces, particularly their beautiful forest and mountain areas and historical buildings, although the impact of tourism on production growth in these three provinces has been positive, the magnitude of this effect is lower than expected. Furthermore, the coefficients for physical capital, human capital, and labor are estimated to be 0.26, 0.21, and 0.39, respectively. That is, holding other conditions constant, a one percent change in physical capital, human capital, and labor changes the level of output by 0.26%, 0.21%, and 0.39%, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Tourism
Urban Development
Regional Development
Northwestern Provinces of Iran
Bazzazan, F. , smaeili, M. and Farsi, F. (2020). Economic Impact of Domestic Tourists on Khorasan Razavi Province. Economics Research20(76), 55-80. doi: 10.22054/joer.2020.11900(in Persian).
Butcher, G., Fairweather, J. R. & Simmons, D. G (2003). "The economic impact of tourism on christchurchcity and akaroa township." http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/PageFiles/6862/908_Rpt37f_s3363.pdf (access1 Mars 2013).
Dehghan Benadkuki,F. , Operajuneghani,E. and Moradi,G. (2023). Investigating the Economic Impacts of Tourism Using the Regional Input-Output Model (Case Study: Dowlatabad Garden, Yazd, Iran). Journal of Tourism and Development12(4), 1-14. doi: 10.22034/jtd.2023.370288.2692(in Persian).
Delqandi, Mehri Sadat and Fazel, Reza and Delqandi, Faezeh Sadat (2019), "Investigating the Economic Effects of Tourism on Sustainable Regional Development", Journal of Geographical Sciences, 16(33), 25-46(in Persian).
Eugenio-Martín, J., Martín Morales, N., & Scarpa, R (2004). "Tourism and economic growth in Latin American Countries": A panel data approach. Milan, Italy, FondazioneEni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, (26).
Farhang, A. A. (2022). The effects of fossil fuels consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices on economic growth. Economic Growth and Development Research12(48), 97-110.
Ghanbri,A et al (2022).  An Assessing the Impact of Rural Tourism on Regional Development (Case study: Azarshahr Ghadamgah). Quarterly of New Attitudes in Human Geography. 14(3).98-125(in Persian).
Gunduz, L. & Hatemi, J.A (2005). "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?" Applied Economic Letters, 12: 499-504.
Gupta, A., Zhu, H., Bhammar, H., Earley, E., Filipski, M., Narain, U., Spencer, P., Whitney, E. & Taylor, J.E. (2023). Economic impact of nature-based tourism. Plos One, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1-16.
Hasanli, Y., Rahimli, G. & Salihova, S. (2021). Economic impact of tourism in Azerbaijan: a sam-based muliplier model. (P. 151). 70th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social. Baku, Azerbaijan, June 2021.
Jie, Z. (2025). How does international tourism revenue affect economic development? A perspective of human capital. Economic Analysis and Policy86, 1546-1568.
Kirilenko, A.P., Ma, S., Stepchenkova, S.O., Su, L. & Waddell, T.F. (2021). Detecting early overtourism: bringing together objective and subjective indicators of tourism benefits. Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 62, No. 2, 1-23.
Kyara, Valensi Corbinian, Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, and Rasheda Khanam. 2021. Tourism expansion and economic growth in Tanzania: A causality analysis. Heliyon 7: e06966
Leitao, N. C (2011). "Tourism and economic growth: a panel data approach." http://repositorio.ipsantarem.pt/bitstream/1/543/10400,15/NunoLeitao_APE _2011.pdf (access 1 Mars 2013).
Manzoor, Faiza, Longbao Wei, Muhammad Asif, Muhammad Zia Haq, and Hafiz Rehman. 2019. The Contribution of Sustainable Tourism toEconomic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16: 3785
Nguyen, Van Chien. 2023. The Effect of Tourism and Technological Contribution on Economic Growth—The Case of Vietnam and Other East Asian Members. In Impact of Industry 4.0 on Sustainable Tourism. Edited by Zuzana Tučková, Sandeep Kumar Dey, Hoc Huynh Thai and Sinh Duc Hoang. Bradford: Emerald Publishing Limited, pp. 19–30.
Nouri, R. B., & Farhang, A. A. (2021). The effect of financial inclusion on financial efficiency and sustainability: An application of the multidimensional indexing approach. Quarterly Journal, Vol16(2), 57-83.
Oh, Chi Ok. 2005. The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management 26: 39–44.
parvin, M. , razavian, M. T. and tavokoli nia, J. (2019). Evaluation of Influence of Tourism on Tehran Economic Development. Researches in Earth Sciences10(3), 214-230. doi: 10.52547/esrj.10.3.214(in Persian).
Portella-Carbó, Ferran, Jose Pérez-Montiel, and Oguzhan Ozcelebi. 2023. Tourism-led economic growth across the business cycle: Evidence from Europe (1995–2021). Economic Analysis and Policy 78: 1241–53.
Postma, Albert, and Dirk Schmuecker. 2017. Understanding and overcoming negative impacts of tourism in city destinations: Conceptual model and strategic framework. Journal of Tourism Futures 3: 144–56
Rasool, Haroon, Shafat Maqbool, and Md Tarique. 2021. The relationship between tourism and economic growth among BRICS countries: A panel cointegration analysis. Future Business Journal 7:
Samimi, A. J., Sadeghi, S., & Sadeghi, S (2018). "Tourism and economic growth in developing countries: P-VAR approach". Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 10(1): 28-32.
Shakouri, Bahram; Khoshnavis Yazdi, Sahyal and Natighian, Niloufar (2017). The Impact of Tourism Development on the Economy of Iran. Journal of Economics and Business, 8(16), 33-52(in Persian).
Singh, Deepti, and Qamar Alam. 2024. Is tourism expansion the key to economic growth in India? An aggregate-level time series analysis. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights 5: 100126.
 Souza, T.V.S.B., Thapa, B., Rodrigues, C.G.O. & Imori, D. (2019). Economic impacts of tourism in protected areas of Brazil. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Vol. 27, No. 6, 735-749.
Sun, Z., Liu, L., Pan, R., Wang, Y., & Zhang, B. (2025). Tourism and economic growth: The role of institutional quality. International Review of Economics & Finance98, 103913.
Tabash, M. I., Anagreh, S., Subhani, B. H., Al-Faryan, M. A. S., & Drachal, K. (2023). Tourism, Remittances, and Foreign Investment as Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Selected Asian Economies. Economies11(2), 54. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11020054
Wan- Chen, P. &Bwo-Nung, H (2008),Tourism, development and economic growth– a nonlinear approach,Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 387(22): 5535-5542.
Wijesekara, Chathuni, Chamath Tittagalla, Ashinsana Jayathilaka, Uvinya Ilukpotha, Ruwan Jayathilaka, and Punmadara Jayasinghe. 2022. Tourism and economic growth: A global study on Granger causality and wavelet coherence. PLoS ONE 17: e0274386
Yavari, K. , Rezagholizadeh, M. , Aghaei, M. and Mostafavi, S. M. H. (2010). The Effect of Tourism on Economic Growth: The Case of OIC Member Countries. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)45(2), 52-47(in Persian).  

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 11 اردیبهشت 1405

  • تاریخ دریافت 03 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 10 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 09 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 11 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 11 اردیبهشت 1405