23.تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی بر مهاجرت از ایران با تأکید بر شاخص فلاکت

نوع مقاله : مقاله مستخرج از طرح پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

3 کارشناس ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: مهاجرت به عنوان واقعه تأثیرگذار جمعیتی، تغییرات قابل ملاحظه ای را در ساخت و توزیع جمعیت ایجاد می‌کند. مهاجرت نه تنها به عنوان یک پدیده، بلکه به عنوان یک فراپدیده (واقعه‌ای که اتفاق آن به دلیل بستر و موقعیتی است که مردم در آن زندگی می‌کنند) از عوامل متعدد اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی و فرهنگی نشأت گرفته است.  به این دلیل، علل و انگیزه‌های مهاجرت را می‌توان از ابعاد مختلف مورد بررسی قرار داد. مهاجرت از ایران موضوعی پیچیده و چند بعدی است که در سال های اخیر توجه زیادی را به خود جلب کرده است.  هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر عوامل اقتصادی بر مهاجرت از ایران با تمرکز ویژه بر شاخص فلاکت (مجموع تورم و بیکاری) است.
روش‌شناسی: پژوهش حاضر با روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی انجام و برای گردآوری اطلاعات از روش اسنادی ـ کتابخانه‌ای استفاده شده است. تمامی داده‌های متغیرهای مورد نظر به صورت سالیانه برای دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2022 استفاده شده است. برای بررسی ارتباط میان متغیرها از روش خود توضیح با وقفه های توزیعی  استفاده شده است. مدل‌هایی که برای بررسی اثرات تاخیری ارائه می‌شوند، معروف به مدل‌های با وقفه توزیعی هستند که یکی از جدید‌ترین روش‌ها برای این بررسی‌ها، روش خود توضیح با وقفه های توزیعی یا ARDL  است. در این مدل، متغیر وابسته تحت تاثیر وقفه‌های این متغیر و سایر متغیرهای مستقل قرار دارد.
یافته ها و نتیجه گیری: یافته‏ های ‏‏پژوهش حاکی از آن است که متغیرهای جمعیت، شاخص فلاکت و تولید ناخالص داخلی تاثیر معنا‌داری بر مهاجرت از ایران دارند، اما شاخص نابرابری ضریب جینی تاثیر معناداری بر مهاجرت ندارد. شاخص فلاکت نیز تأثیر مثبت و قابل توجهی بر مهاجرت دارد. برعکس، رشد اقتصادی تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر مهاجرت دارد، به طوری که یک درصد افزایش در رشد اقتصادی می‌تواند نرخ مهاجرت را 1/0 درصد کاهش دهد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که سه عامل کلیدی رشد جمعیت، نرخ فقر و رشد اقتصادی به طور مستقیم بر روند مهاجرت از ایران تأثیر می‌گذارند. با افزایش جمعیت، فشار بر منابع اقتصادی و اجتماعی کشور تشدید می‌شود. در شرایطی که فرصت‌های شغلی و خدمات عمومی توسعه نیافته‌اند، افراد ممکن است برای جستجوی شرایط زندگی بهتر مهاجرت کنند. شاخص فلاکت، که هم نرخ تورم و هم نرخ بیکاری را در بر می‌گیرد، به عنوان یک شاخص حیاتی برای عملکرد اقتصادی عمل می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Influence of Economic Factors on Migration from Iran: A Focus on the Misery Index

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Hassanzadeh 1
Abdulrahim Hashemi dizaj 2
Roghayeh Aghazadeh 3
1 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
3 MSc of Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
چکیده English

Background and Objective: Migration, as an influential demographic event, creates significant changes in the structure and distribution of the population. Migration, not only as a phenomenon, but also as a metaphenomenon (an event that occurs due to the context and situation in which people live), has arisen from numerous economic, social, political, and cultural factors. For this reason, the causes and motivations of migration can be examined from different dimensions. Migration from Iran is a complex and multidimensional issue that has attracted much attention in recent years. The aim of this article is to examine the impact of economic factors on migration from Iran, with a special focus on the misery index (sum of inflation and unemployment).
Methodology The present study was conducted using a descriptive-analytical method and the documentary-library method was used to collect information. All data on the desired variables were used annually for the period 2000 to 2022. The self-explanatory method with distributional lags was used to examine the relationship between variables. The models presented to examine the effects of lags are known as distributional lag models, one of the most recent methods for these studies is the self-explanatory distributional lags or ARDL method.
Findings and Conclusion: The research findings indicate that the variables population, poverty index and GDP have a significant effect on migration from Iran, but the Gini coefficient inequality index does not have a significant effect on migration. . The poverty index also has a significant and positive effect on migration. . On the contrary, economic growth has a significant and negative effect on migration, so that a one percent increase in economic growth can reduce the migration rate by 0.1 percent. The results show that three key factors population growth, poverty rate and economic growth directly affect the migration process from Iran. With the increase in population, the pressure on the country's economic and social resources intensifies. In conditions where job opportunities and public services are not developed, people may migrate in search of better living conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

: Immigration
Misery index
Economic Factors
Unemployment
Inflation
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دوره 6، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 20
تابستان 1404
صفحه 397-411

  • تاریخ دریافت 06 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 10 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 08 خرداد 1404
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 10 خرداد 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 شهریور 1404