آینده‌نگاری توسعه مسکن اجتماعی در کلانشهر تبریز: شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی و تحلیل سناریوها

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 استاد گروه برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز

3 دانشجوی دکتری گروه برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: شهرنشینی شتابان و مهاجرت گسترده به کلانشهرها، همراه با افزایش ۳۰ تا ۵۰ درصدی قیمت مسکن در دهه اخیر و عدم تناسب رشد درآمد خانوارها، دسترسی به مسکن اجتماعی را به چالشی اساسی تبدیل کرده است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که بیش از ۱.۶ میلیارد نفر در جهان به مسکن مناسب دسترسی ندارند. کلانشهر تبریز به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین مراکز جمعیتی و اقتصادی شمال غرب ایران، با معضلات فزاینده‌ای در حوزه دسترسی اقشار کم‌درآمد به مسکن اجتماعی مواجه است، با این حال مطالعات اندکی به آینده‌نگاری توسعه این نوع مسکن در تبریز پرداخته‌اند. از این رو، پژوهش حاضر با هدف آینده‌نگاری توسعه مسکن اجتماعی در کلانشهر تبریز از طریق شناسایی پیش‌ران‌های کلیدی و تحلیل سناریوهای محتمل انجام شده است. روش شناسی: این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش آمیخته (کیفی-کمی) است. داده‌ها از طریق مطالعات اسنادی و میدانی (مصاحبه با 15 نفر از خبرگان و پرسش از 100 نفر از ساکنان تبریز) جمع‌آوری شده و تحلیل داده‌ها در دو مرحله تحلیل ساختاری با روش میک‌مک و سناریونگاری با نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد انجام گرفته است. یافته ها و نتایج: نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که مسئله مسکن اجتماعی در تبریز به «مثلث راهبردی» متشکل از الگوهای نوین تأمین مسکن، پایداری کامل منابع مالی و نظارت هوشمند کیفی گره خورده است و حضور اجباری این سه عامل در تمامی ۱۵ سناریوی باورپذیر (با میانگین حداکثری ۳.۰۰) مؤید آن است که در غیاب هر یک از این سه رکن، هیچ آینده معقولی قابل تصور نیست. از میان ۱۵ سناریو، تنها ۲ سناریو دارای وضعیت مطلوب، ۱۲ سناریو دارای وضعیت ایستا و ۱ سناریو دارای وضعیت بحرانی هستند و محتمل‌ترین سناریو نشان می‌دهد که آینده مسکن اجتماعی در تبریز نه جهشی بزرگ و نه فروپاشی کامل، بلکه حرکتی تدریجی و همراه با شکنندگی در مسیری بینابینی خواهد بود. همچنین هر دو فرضیه پژوهش مبنی بر تأثیر سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی و توسعه فناوری‌های سبز بر بهبود شرایط مسکن اجتماعی، با قید وجود پایداری مالی و نظارت هوشمند، تأیید شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Futures Study of Social Housing Development in Tabriz Metropolis: Identification of Key Drivers and Scenario Analysis

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Reza Pourmohammadi 1
Hassan Mahmoudzadeh 2
Mehri Saadatjuye Asr 3
1 Professor, Urban and Regional Planning Department, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Professor, Urban and Regional Planning Department, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences ,University of Tabriz
3 Ph. D Student, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده English

Background and Objective: Rapid urbanization and a sharp 30–50% rise in housing prices_compared to only 10–15% income growth_have severely restricted low-income groups’ access to social housing in Tabriz. Given that previous research has largely focused on physical-spatial variables without employing futures-oriented methodologies, this study aims to conduct a futures study of social housing development by identifying key drivers and analyzing probable scenarios. Methodology: This applied research adopts a mixed-method design, integrating documentary reviews, semi-structured interviews with 50 urban planning experts, and surveys completed by 150 Tabriz residents. Analytical procedures involved two stages: (1) structural analysis via MIC-MAC to map driving power and dependence among factors, and (2) scenario planning using Scenario Wizard based on the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method to generate and evaluate consistent future scenarios. Results and findings: The analysis identifies a mandatory “strategic triangle” _comprising innovative provision models, full financial sustainability, and intelligent quality monitoring which is present across all 15 plausible scenarios, underscoring that no viable future exists without these pillars. Physical/topographical constraints and infrastructural deficits persist as structural barriers. Among the scenarios, only 2 are desirable, 12 are stagnant, and 1 is critical; the most probable scenario (No. 1, TIS 65) projects a future where the strategic triangle is maintained alongside static government investment and enduring physical limitations.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

آینده ‌نگاری
مسکن اجتماعی
کلانشهر تبریز
پیشران‌های کلیدی
تحلیل سناریوها
نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد
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  • تاریخ دریافت 28 اسفند 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 21 فروردین 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 19 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 21 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 آذر 1405