نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.
2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.
3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Abstract
Background and Objective: Economic growth and development over the past two decades in developing countries have clearly demonstrated the many effects of financial market cycles on economic activities in these countries. Instability and change in financial markets shape financial cycles, which in turn disrupt economic activities and reduce the economic growth of countries. Therefore, given the importance of the effects of financial cycles on economic growth, the aim of this study is to analyze and investigate the effects of asymmetric financial cycles on economic growth in Iraq.
Methodology: The present study analyzes and investigates the short-term and long-term effects of asymmetric financial cycles on economic growth in Iraq during the period 1990-2023 in the form of econometric models and methods. For this purpose, the autoregressive model with asymmetric distribution lag (NARDL) is used. This model is an extended form of the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model.
Results: The results showed that in the long run, positive financial cycles have a positive and significant effect and negative financial cycles have a negative and significant effect on Iraq's economic growth. Also, foreign trade, exchange rate, active labor force, physical capital and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect, and oil revenues have a negative and significant effect on Iraq's economic growth. The explanatory and control variables (asymmetric financial cycles, foreign trade, exchange rate, physical capital, active labor force, foreign direct investment and oil revenues) also explain and show 75 percent of the changes in the target variable (Iraqi economic growth).
Conclusion: Given that financial cycles and foreign trade have the greatest impact on economic growth in the short and long run, therefore, monitoring credit expansion through macroprudential policies is essential to maintain financial stability in this country. Also, the Iraqi government can lead to increased economic growth by gradually creating conditions and establishing appropriate and necessary laws and regulations to expand commercial freedom and increase trade.
کلیدواژهها English
