The metropolitan city of Tabriz has experienced substantial spatial and physical transformations in recent decades due to the combined effects of global and local megatrends. Global forces such as economic globalization, technological advancement, rapid urbanization, smart-city development, environmental challenges, and climate change have significantly influenced urban systems. At the local level, informal settlement expansion, deteriorated urban fabrics, uncontrolled high-rise development, and weaknesses in land management have intensified urban challenges. As one of Iran’s major historical, industrial, and cultural centers, Tabriz provides a valuable case for examining the interaction between global transformations and local urban dynamics. Despite notable physical growth and limited smart-city initiatives, the city has lacked a comprehensive strategic framework for addressing emerging opportunities and challenges.

This study evaluates the transformability and future development prospects of the Tabriz metropolitan area, focusing on its spatial and physical dimensions in response to contemporary megatrends. A descriptive–analytical and applied research approach was adopted. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire containing 100 indicators related to 20 global and domestic megatrends. The study involved 50 experts in urban planning, urban development, and municipal management. Responses were measured using a five-point Likert scale and analyzed through descriptive statistics and a quantitative SWOT framework to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats affecting the city’s future development.

The findings indicate that the examined megatrends have a moderate to high impact on Tabriz’s physical structure and environmental quality. Uncontrolled high-rise construction and rapid vertical growth were identified as the most significant challenges, negatively affecting urban identity, visual coherence, and cultural character. The continued expansion of informal settlements and deteriorated urban areas was also found to contribute to spatial inequality and unbalanced development. Conversely, smart-city technologies, digital innovation, and resilience-oriented planning offer considerable potential for improving environmental quality, increasing energy efficiency, reducing pollution, and strengthening urban adaptability.

The SWOT analysis shows that Tabriz is positioned within a corrective–aggressive strategic framework. Major strengths include spatial diversity, urban regeneration capacity, strategic regional location, and existing technological infrastructure. Key weaknesses involve spatial inequality, uncontrolled vertical development, informal expansion, and weak integrated urban governance. Important opportunities arise from global trends promoting sustainable development, technological innovation, urban resilience, and spatial justice. The most significant threats include climate change, speculative investment pressures, and the gradual erosion of urban identity.

Based on these findings, the study recommends reducing spatial inequalities, upgrading informal settlements, regenerating deteriorated urban fabrics, managing vertical growth within a sustainable framework, attracting responsible investment, and enhancing urban resilience. The results emphasize that sustainable urban development in Tabriz depends on integrated policymaking, effective use of emerging technologies, and development strategies that balance local needs with global transformations. The proposed framework provides practical guidance for strengthening urban governance and promoting sustainable spatial development in the metropolitan area.