فصلنامه مطالعات توسعه پایدار شهری و منطقه ای

تحلیل همدیدی الگوهای گردش جوی مؤثر بر سرمازدگی‌های دیررس بهاره در باغات سیب شهرستان سمیرم

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

کمال امیدوار 1
محمدرضا نامداری 2
راحله خیرالامور 3

1 استاد، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، جغرافیای طبیعی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری، آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: سرمازدگی دیررس بهاره از مهم‌ترین مخاطرات مرکب اقلیمی–فنولوژیک در باغ‌های سیب مناطق کوهستانی ایران است که خسارت آن عمدتاً از هم‌زمانی افت دما با مراحل حساس فنولوژیک، به‌ویژه گل‌دهی، ناشی می‌شود و لزوماً با مقدار مطلق دمای کمینه ایستگاه تناسب مستقیم ندارد. شهرستان سمیرم، به‌عنوان یکی از قطب‌های تولید سیب کشور، به‌دلیل ارتفاع، توپوگرافی و رژیم دمایی بهاره، مستعد این پدیده است. هدف این پژوهش، تحلیل همدیدی الگوهای گردش جوی مؤثر بر سرمازدگی دیررس بهاره و بررسی رخدادهای ۱۳۸۱، ۱۳۸۵ و ۱۳۹۲ در چارچوب آماری دوره ۲۰ساله ۱۳۸۱–۱۴۰۰ است.
روش شناسی: دمای کمینه روزانه ایستگاه همدیدی سمیرم در دوره ۱۳۸۱–۱۴۰۰، در پنجره فنولوژیک حساس سیب از ۱۵ فروردین تا ۷ اردیبهشت بررسی شد. برای توصیف زمینه سطحی سه رخداد موردی ۱۳۸۱، ۱۳۸۵ و ۱۳۹۲، علاوه بر دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه، دمای میانگین، بارش ۲۴ساعته، رطوبت نسبی میانگین و سرعت باد میانگین نیز از همان ایستگاه و در پنجره همدیدی ۱۲ تا ۳۱ فروردین استخراج شد. تحلیل همدیدی همان سه رخداد با داده‌های بازتحلیل NCEP/NCAR و در نرم‌افزار GrADS نسخه ۲٫۱ انجام شد.
یافته‌ها و نتایج: از 480 روز پنجره مورد بررسی، 473 روز دارای داده معتبر بود. در این دوره، 62 روز در طبقه ضعیف، 31 روز (در طبقه متوسط و هیچ روزی در طبقه شدید قرار گرفت؛ در مجموع، 93 روز دارای شرایط سرمازدگی بودند. کمینه دمای ثبت‌شده 5/1- درجه سلسیوس بود و هیچ روزی با Tmin <= -2 درجه سلسیوس مشاهده نشد. دمای کمینه در رخدادهای 1381، 1385 و 1392 به‌ترتیب 1/0-، 4/0- و 6/0 درجه سلسیوس بود؛ بنابراین، هر سه رخداد در طبقه متوسط قرار گرفتند. با وجود این، خسارت بیشتر در سال 1392 با هم‌زمانی سرما و گل‌دهی و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری فنولوژیک مرتبط بود. تحلیل همدیدی هر سه رخداد، نفوذ هوای سرد از عرض‌های بالاتر و استقرار ناوه در تراز میانی جو را نشان داد. همچنین، وقوع بارش هم‌زمان با اوج سرما در سال‌های 1385 و 1392 با سرمایش صرفاً تابشی سازگار نبود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد شدت خسارت سرمازدگی در سمیرم تابع مستقیم دمای کمینه ایستگاه نیست، بلکه از برهم‌کنش شرایط جوی و مرحله فنولوژیک محصول تأثیر می‌پذیرد. ازاین‌رو، ترکیب ارزیابی آماری بلندمدت با تحلیل همدیدی رخدادهای شاخص می‌تواند مبنای مناسب‌تری برای تبیین خطر سرمازدگی و توسعه سامانه‌های هشدار پیش‌هنگام در باغ‌های سیب سمیرم فراهم کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سرمازدگی دیررس بهاره
الگوهای گردش جوی
باغات سیب
داده‌های بازتحلیل
شهرستان سمیرم
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Synoptic Analysis of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Influencing Late Spring Frost Events in Apple Orchards of Semirom Township, Iran

نویسندگان English

Kamal Omidvar 1
Mohammad Reza Namdari 2
Rahele Kheirolomour 3
1 Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
2 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
3 Ph.D. Student, Department of Geography (Climatology), Faculty of Humanities, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده English

Background and Objective: Late spring frost is one of the major compound climate–phenological hazards affecting apple orchards in the mountainous regions of Iran. Its damage primarily results from the coincidence of temperature decline with sensitive phenological stages, particularly flowering, and is not necessarily directly proportional to the absolute minimum temperature recorded at a weather station. Semirom Township, one of Iran’s major apple-producing regions, is particularly susceptible to this phenomenon due to its elevation, topography, and spring temperature regime. This study aimed to analyze the synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with late spring frost and to examine the events of 2002, 2006, and 2013 within the statistical framework of the 20-year period from 2002 to 2021.
Methodology: Daily minimum temperature data from the Semirom synoptic station were analyzed for the critical phenological window for apple trees, from 4 April to 27 April, during 2002–2021. To characterize the near-surface conditions during the three selected events (2002, 2006, and 2013), daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures, 24-hour precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean wind speed were extracted from the same station for the synoptic window of 1–20 April. Synoptic analysis of the three events was conducted using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and GrADS version 2.1.
Results and Findings: Of the 480 days within the study window, 473 had valid observations. During this period, 62 days were classified as weak and 31 days as moderate frost events, while no days met the criteria for severe frost; thus, a total of 93 days experienced frost conditions. The lowest recorded temperature was −1.5 °C, and no day with Tmin ≤ −2 °C was observed. The minimum temperatures during the 2002, 2006, and 2013 events were −1.0, −0.4, and −0.6 °C, respectively; consequently, all three events were classified as moderate frost events. Nevertheless, the greater damage reported in 2013 was associated with the coincidence of cold conditions and flowering, which increased phenological vulnerability. Synoptic analysis of all three events indicated the intrusion of cold air from higher latitudes and the establishment of a mid-tropospheric trough. Moreover, the occurrence of precipitation concurrently with the coldest conditions in 2006 and 2013 was inconsistent with purely radiative cooling. The results indicate that frost damage severity in Semirom is not directly determined by station-based minimum temperature alone, but is influenced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and crop phenological stage. Therefore, integrating long-term statistical assessment with synoptic analysis of representative frost events can provide a more appropriate basis for characterizing frost risk and developing early-warning systems for apple orchards in Semirom.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Apple orchards
atmospheric circulation patterns
late spring frost
reanalysis data
Semirom Township
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  • تاریخ دریافت 02 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 03 تیر 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 07 شهریور 1405
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 10 شهریور 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 اسفند 1405

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