طراحی الگوی مشوق های صادراتی جهت توسعه صادرات ایران: رویکرد نظریه پردازی داده بنیاد

نوع مقاله : مقاله مستخرج از رساله دکتری

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد،علوم اقتصادی، پردیس بین المللی ارس،دانشگاه تبریز،ایران

2 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز،ایران

چکیده
زمینه و هدف: وابستگی اقتصاد ایران به درآمدهای نفتی، آسیب‌پذیری آن را در برابر شوک‌های خارجی افزایش داده است. تجربه کاهش شدید قیمت نفت در سال‌های اخیر نشان داد که اقتصادی که متکی به درآمدهای نفتی باشد، در برابر نوسانات بازار جهانی بسیار آسیب‌پذیر است. از این رو، توسعه صادرات غیرنفتی به عنوان یک راهبرد اساسی برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی و ایجاد جریان پایدار درآمدی مطرح می‌شود. این راهبرد نیازمند ابزارهای سیاستی کارآمد از جمله مشوق‌های صادراتی است. لذا هدف این پژوهش طراحی الگوی مشوق‌های صادراتی جهت توسعه صادرات در ایران می‌باشد.
روش شناسی: قلمرو زمانی این پژوهش شامل دو دوره است. در فاز کیفی، مصاحبه‌های عمیق با خبرگان در سال ۱۴۰۴ انجام شده است. در فاز کمی، پرسشنامه‌ها در همان سال توزیع و جمع‌آوری شده است. داده‌های مورد استفاده در این پژوهش مربوط به سال‌های اخیر است. جامعه آماری فاز کمی شامل صادرکنندگان فعال ثبت‌شده در سازمان توسعه تجارت ایران و اتاق بازرگانی، صنایع، معادن و کشاورزی ایران می‌باشد که بر اساس آمار رسمی، تعداد آن‌ها حدود ۱۰,۰۰۰ بنگاه صادرکننده رسمی برآورد می‌شود. در این پژوهش، پس از استخراج مدل نظری در مرحله کیفی، مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری برای بررسی روابط میان سازهها و آزمون فرضیه ها استفاده می شود .
یافته‌ها و نتایج: نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که پنج دسته از مشوق‌های صادراتی شامل مشوق‌های مالی، مشوق‌های اطلاعاتی، مشوق‌های بازاریابی، مشوق‌های عملیاتی و مقررات محیطی بر توسعه صادرات تأثیر مثبت و معنادار دارند. همه فرضیه‌های اصلی پژوهش تأیید شدند. ضریب تعیین مدل برابر چهل و هشت و دو دهم درصد به دست آمد که نشان‌دهنده قدرت تبیینی مطلوب مدل است. بر اساس تحلیل اهمیت عملکرد و تلفیق نتایج آماری، مشوق‌های مالی در رتبه اول اهمیت قرار گرفتند و پس از آن به ترتیب مشوق‌های بازاریابی، مشوق‌های عملیاتی، مشوق‌های اطلاعاتی و مقررات محیطی قرار گرفتند. این رتبه‌بندی می‌تواند مبنای تخصیص منابع و اولویت‌بندی سیاست‌ها در حوزه صادرات باشد. بنابراین می‌توان گفت که توسعه پایدار صادرات غیرنفتی نیازمند رویکردی جامع‌نگر و هماهنگ است. همه ابعاد مشوق‌های صادراتی باید در کنار هم و به صورت یکپارچه تقویت شوند. همچنین توجه به شرایط زمینه‌ای خاص ایران از جمله تحریم‌ها و نوسانات ارزی ضروری است. امید است که یافته‌های این پژوهش بتواند گامی هرچند کوچک در جهت بهبود سیاست‌گذاری صادراتی کشور و توسعه پایدار صادرات غیرنفتی باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Designing a Model of Export Incentives for the Development of Iran's Exports: Grounded Theory Approach

نویسندگان English

Javad Yahyapour 1
Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Osgouei 2
Behzad Salmani 2
1 Ph.D.student of Economics, Economic Science, Aras International Campus, University of Tabriz, Iran.
2 Professor,of the Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Iran
چکیده English

Background and Objective: The Iranian economy's reliance on oil revenues has heightened its vulnerability to external shocks. Recent experiences with sharp declines in oil prices have demonstrated that an economy dependent on oil revenue is highly susceptible to global market fluctuations. Consequently, the development of non-oil exports has emerged as a fundamental strategy to mitigate economic vulnerability and establish a sustainable revenue stream. This strategy necessitates effective policy instruments, particularly export incentives. Therefore, the aim of this study is to design a model of export incentives to foster export development in Iran.
Methodology: The study encompasses two phases. In the qualitative phase, in-depth interviews were conducted with experts. In the quantitative phase, questionnaires were distributed and collected. The data utilized in this study pertain to recent years. The statistical population for the quantitative phase consists of active exporters registered with the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran and the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture; official statistics estimate this population at approximately10,000 formal exporting firms. Following the derivation of the theoretical model in the qualitative phase, structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to examine the relationships between constructs and test the hypotheses.
Results and findings: The results indicate that five categories of export incentives-financial, informational, marketing, and operational incentives, as well as regulatory environment factors-have a positive and significant impact on export development. All primary research hypotheses were confirmed. The model's coefficient of determination was found to be 48.2%, indicating satisfactory explanatory power. Based on the performance importance analysis and the synthesis of statistical results, financial incentives ranked first in importance, followed-in descending order-by marketing incentives, operational incentives, informational incentives, and environmental regulations. This ranking can serve as a basis for resource allocation and policy prioritization in the export sector. Consequently, it can be concluded that the sustainable development of non-oil exports requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach; all dimensions of export incentives must be strengthened in an integrated manner. Furthermore, it is essential to consider Iran's specific contextual conditions, including sanctions and currency fluctuations. It is hoped that the findings of this research will contribute-however modestly-to improving the country's export policy and fostering the sustainable development of non-oil exports.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Export incentives
export development
Iran
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  • تاریخ دریافت 05 مرداد 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 17 شهریور 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 18 مهر 1405
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 20 مهر 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 اسفند 1405