Background and Objective: The dilapidated fabric of the central part of Ahvaz city is highly vulnerable to various shocks and threats (natural such as earthquakes, floods, fires; socio-economic such as recession, demographic and technological changes) due to its high vulnerability in various physical, social, economic, environmental and institutional-management fields. In this regard, addressing the issue of future research on the role of resilience components in the dilapidated fabric of the central part of Ahvaz city is a multifaceted and vital necessity. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the scenarios of impact on improving the resilience of dilapidated urban fabric.
Methodology: The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The data collection method was library, documentary, and interview (with 50 experts) and using futures research techniques and Micmac and Scenario wizard software.
Results and Findings: The present research, aiming to determine the future trajectories of resilience in the obsolete urban fabric of Ahvaz's central district, initially identified 30 main factors across five dimensions: Environmental, Social, Physical, Economic, and Institutional-Organizational. Utilizing the MICMAC (Matrice d'Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement) and Scenario Wizard software, these factors were refined, leading to the selection of 18 key drivers (or "propellants") for scenario development.The final analysis of 19 possible scenarios yielded three distinct pathways: 8 Optimistic Scenarios (promising comprehensive physical-social development), 7 Stagnant Scenarios (indicating high-risk stagnation and fragility), and 4 Pessimistic/Crisis Scenarios (forecasting widespread collapse across economic, environmental, and safety dimensions).The most crucial results, ranked by the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) Score, indicate that the Strong (Desired) Scenario—with the highest total impact score of 780—is heavily reliant on critical drivers such as local empowerment and extensive financial support. Conversely, the Undesirable (Crisis) Scenario, with a sharp negative score of $-210$, results from a combination of the weakness of these very drivers and increased vulnerability. The ultimate conclusion emphasizes that the future of resilience in the region is critically dependent on the strategic choices of policymakers. To prevent a slide toward stagnation and collapse (as reflected in the Stagnant and Pessimistic scenarios), immediate priority must be given to strengthening the social dimension (through empowerment) and reforming institutional structures (financial), thereby translating existing potential into comprehensive sustainability.