Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS)

Abstract Background and Objective: Late spring frost is one of the major compound climate–phenological hazards affecting apple orchards in the mountainous regions of Iran. Its damage primarily results from the coincidence of temperature decline with sensitive phenological stages, particularly flowering, and is not necessarily directly proportional to the absolute minimum temperature recorded at a weather station. Semirom Township, one of Iran’s major apple-producing regions, is particularly susceptible to this phenomenon due to its elevation, topography, and spring temperature regime. This study aimed to analyze the synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with late spring frost and to examine the events of 2002, 2006, and 2013 within the statistical framework of the 20-year period from 2002 to 2021.
Methodology: Daily minimum temperature data from the Semirom synoptic station were analyzed for the critical phenological window for apple trees, from 4 April to 27 April, during 2002–2021. To characterize the near-surface conditions during the three selected events (2002, 2006, and 2013), daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures, 24-hour precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean wind speed were extracted from the same station for the synoptic window of 1–20 April. Synoptic analysis of the three events was conducted using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and GrADS version 2.1.
Results and Findings: Of the 480 days within the study window, 473 had valid observations. During this period, 62 days were classified as weak and 31 days as moderate frost events, while no days met the criteria for severe frost; thus, a total of 93 days experienced frost conditions. The lowest recorded temperature was −1.5 °C, and no day with Tmin ≤ −2 °C was observed. The minimum temperatures during the 2002, 2006, and 2013 events were −1.0, −0.4, and −0.6 °C, respectively; consequently, all three events were classified as moderate frost events. Nevertheless, the greater damage reported in 2013 was associated with the coincidence of cold conditions and flowering, which increased phenological vulnerability. Synoptic analysis of all three events indicated the intrusion of cold air from higher latitudes and the establishment of a mid-tropospheric trough. Moreover, the occurrence of precipitation concurrently with the coldest conditions in 2006 and 2013 was inconsistent with purely radiative cooling. The results indicate that frost damage severity in Semirom is not directly determined by station-based minimum temperature alone, but is influenced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and crop phenological stage. Therefore, integrating long-term statistical assessment with synoptic analysis of representative frost events can provide a more appropriate basis for characterizing frost risk and developing early-warning systems for apple orchards in Semirom.

Abstract Background and Objective: Given the widespread and inevitable consequences of environmental challenges and the priority of prevention in the management of urban issues, identifying vulnerable points and examining the consequences of these challenges on urban security is essential in order to prevent environmental issues from turning into crises. In the meantime, the quality of urban governance and the functioning of management institutions can play an important role in preventing, controlling, and reducing the consequences of environmental challenges. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the relationship between urban governance components and the state of the environment in the city of Kashan and to identify the most important environmental challenges and consequences resulting from the state of urban governance.
Methodology The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. Data collection was carried out using library studies and field methods. In the field section, data were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire based on the Likert scale, the items of which were developed using previous studies and expert opinions. A correlation matrix was used to analyze the data and examine the relationship between the components of urban governance and the state of the environment.
Results and Findings: The research findings showed that all components of urban governance, including participation, transparency, accountability, rule of law, justice, and efficiency, have a positive and significant relationship with the state of the environment. Among the components studied, accountability with a correlation coefficient of 0.621 showed the highest relationship with the state of the environment, followed by transparency with a coefficient of 0.578 and efficiency with a coefficient of 0.567. Justice (0.542), citizen participation (0.512), and rule of law (0.493) also had a positive and significant relationship with the state of the environment. In addition, the water crisis and air pollution were identified as the most important environmental challenges with security dimensions in the city of Kashan.

Abstract Background and Objective: The concepts of climate change and global warming have been widely recognized as major concerns for the survival of living organisms on Earth.This study examines the effects of human development and digitalization indicators on environmental quality with an emphasis on financial development: a quantile regression approach in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries from 2002 to 2021.
Methodology: The research method is applied and the data were collected in the form of documents (library) and for analysis, quantile econometric models and panel data with the Hausman test were used. The results of the study showed that, in the research model: HDI and NAT: have a positive and significant effect in most quantiles. WGINDEX: This index has a negative and significant effect in most quantiles. DIG: This variable has a positive and significant effect at 80% and 90%. FININDEX: The financial index has a negative and significant effect at the 90% quantile. GDP: Gross domestic product has a positive and significant effect at the 80% and 90% quantiles.
Results and Findings: Analyses indicate that governance has a significant negative effect on the ecological footprint within the middle and upper quantiles; this signifies an improvement in governance, leading to a reduction in ecological pressure. Overall, the findings show that digital and economic growth can help improve the environmental situation, but unsustainable exploitation of natural resources and political instability undermine environmental quality.

Abstract Background and Objective: Urban Heat Islands (UHI) are an important environmental consequence of urban expansion and changes in land surface characteristics, particularly the growth of built-up areas and reduction of vegetation cover. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in urban heat islands and identify the factors influencing their intensity in Baqubah City, Iraq, using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis focuses on three periods, 1985, 2005, and 2025, to assess changes in the thermal characteristics of the urban environment and their relationship with major environmental and physical indicators.
Methodology: Landsat satellite imagery was used to derive Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and Urban Heat Island (UHI) indicators. In addition, Air Quality Index (AQI) and Relative Humidity (RH) were incorporated as environmental variables. Spatial analysis and map preparation were conducted using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Multivariate linear regression was applied to examine the relationships between UHI intensity and the explanatory variables during the three study periods.
Results and findings: The results indicate that the intensity of the urban heat island in Baqubah increased over the study period. The influence of NDBI on UHI increased from 0.47 in 1985 to 0.70 in 2025, while the effect of LST increased from 0.58 to 0.80. In contrast, NDVI showed a negative relationship with UHI, with its coefficient increasing from −0.25 to −0.38, indicating a persistent cooling effect of vegetation. The explanatory power of the regression models also increased over time, with R² rising from 0.67 in 1985 to 0.85 in 2025. These findings demonstrate that increasing urbanization and expansion of built-up surfaces have intensified thermal stress in Baqubah, whereas vegetation has played an important mitigating role. The results highlight the importance of protecting and expanding green spaces and integrating green infrastructure into urban planning to reduce UHI impacts.

Abstract Background and Objective: Tribal culture and tribal affiliations are important factors in political decision-making and political actions in Iraq, overshadowing democratic values and marginalizing them. The present study was conducted to investigate the social, cultural, and political factors affecting the inclination toward democratic values among citizens of Wasit Province, Iraq.
Methodology: This is an applied, descriptive-analytical study conducted within a quantitative paradigm using a survey method. The statistical population comprised all citizens of Wasit Province, Iraq, totaling 1,415,034 people. The sample size was estimated at 600 respondents using Cochran’s formula. Data were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire developed based on the theoretical foundations of the study. The face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by professors and experts, and its reliability was established using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Data were analyzed using SPSS 26 and LISREL 9.
Results and findings: The findings indicated a significant relationship between social, cultural, and political factors and the inclination toward democratic values among citizens of Wasit Province. Factors including media literacy, with an effect intensity of 16.4%; internet literacy, 18.2%; social capital, 12.1%; urbanization, 14.3%; cultural capital, 14.9%; employment in the industrial sector, 10.1%; employment in the service sector, 15%; and participation in civil institutions, 16.1%, had positive effects on the inclination toward democratic values among citizens of Wasit Province.

Abstract Background and Objective: The Iranian economy's reliance on oil revenues has heightened its vulnerability to external shocks. Recent experiences with sharp declines in oil prices have demonstrated that an economy dependent on oil revenue is highly susceptible to global market fluctuations. Consequently, the development of non-oil exports has emerged as a fundamental strategy to mitigate economic vulnerability and establish a sustainable revenue stream. This strategy necessitates effective policy instruments, particularly export incentives. Therefore, the aim of this study is to design a model of export incentives to foster export development in Iran.
Methodology: The study encompasses two phases. In the qualitative phase, in-depth interviews were conducted with experts. In the quantitative phase, questionnaires were distributed and collected. The data utilized in this study pertain to recent years. The statistical population for the quantitative phase consists of active exporters registered with the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran and the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture; official statistics estimate this population at approximately10,000 formal exporting firms. Following the derivation of the theoretical model in the qualitative phase, structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to examine the relationships between constructs and test the hypotheses.
Results and findings: The results indicate that five categories of export incentives-financial, informational, marketing, and operational incentives, as well as regulatory environment factors-have a positive and significant impact on export development. All primary research hypotheses were confirmed. The model's coefficient of determination was found to be 48.2%, indicating satisfactory explanatory power. Based on the performance importance analysis and the synthesis of statistical results, financial incentives ranked first in importance, followed-in descending order-by marketing incentives, operational incentives, informational incentives, and environmental regulations. This ranking can serve as a basis for resource allocation and policy prioritization in the export sector. Consequently, it can be concluded that the sustainable development of non-oil exports requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach; all dimensions of export incentives must be strengthened in an integrated manner. Furthermore, it is essential to consider Iran's specific contextual conditions, including sanctions and currency fluctuations. It is hoped that the findings of this research will contribute-however modestly-to improving the country's export policy and fostering the sustainable development of non-oil exports.

Abstract Background and Objective: New Urbanism, as an integrated approach, pursues the enhancement of urban living quality, the reinforcement of walkability, and the development of vibrant public spaces. However, the degree of conformity between urban fabrics and the principles of this approach is frequently judged qualitatively, without empirical assessment. This study aims to empirically assess and comparatively analyze New Urbanism principles across three distinct fabrics of Semnan (the historical fabric of Nasar, the intermediate fabric of Bagh-e Ferdows, and the new-build fabric of Golestan) and to prioritize intervention strategies tailored to each fabric.
Methodology: The research is applied in objective and descriptive-analytical in method. Data were gathered through 360 questionnaires (120 per neighborhood) and analyzed using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and multiple regression analysis in SPSS software.
Results and Findings: The results indicate that the sampling adequacy across the overall data was favorable (KMO = 0.782) and that the residents' perceptual structure of environmental quality is a function of the physical complexity of the fabric. Specifically, 9 factors (explaining 87.8% of the variance) were identified for the traditional fabric of Nasar, 8 factors (83.7%) for the intermediate fabric of Bagh-Ferdous, and 5 factors (90.3%) for the modern fabric of Golestan. Furthermore, regression analysis revealed that walkability, with the highest coefficient of importance (β = 0.81), is the most decisive principle of New Urbanism across all three neighborhoods, and along with the "land-use diversity" index, it holds the highest priority for intervention in all three fabrics. Meanwhile, the indices of "public participation" and "cultural identity" exhibited poor status across all neighborhoods, necessitating significant reinforcement. Finally, a comparison of the final scores showed that the Golestan neighborhood has the highest and the Nasar neighborhood has the lowest alignment with the principles of New Urbanism. Based on these findings, tailored intervention strategies were formulated; accordingly, the primary priorities were identified as the regeneration and restoration of pedestrian infrastructure in Nasar, the unification of facades and the completion of the pedestrian and bicycle network in Bagh-Ferdous, and the development of active public spaces and the institutionalization of resident participation in Golestan.